Vol 17, No 2 (2023)

In this paper, we study the development of investment strategies by predicting M&A deals using a logistic model with the financial and non-financial indicators of public companies. A random sample of 1510 acquired and non-acquired companies in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Sweden, and Russia over the period 2000-2021 was used to design an M&A logit prediction model with high predictive power. The use of interaction variables significantly improved the model’s predictive power and allowed it to obtain more than 70% of correct out-of-sample predictions. Then the model’s ability to generate abnormal returns was tested with the help of an event study using share price data over the period 2011-2021. We show that an M&A prediction model can also efficiently generate abnormal returns (up to 49% on average) for a portfolio of companies that are expected to be acquired. Moreover, we uncover evidence that reduction in false positive and negative predictions has a positive effect on abnormal returns due to the added model flexibility resulting from interaction terms. Our positive theoretical and empirical results can help both private and institutional investors to design investment strategies. In addition, there are indirect implications that support the practical importance of an efficient M&A prediction model.

The Russian economy is facing sanctions pressure, resulting in weakening business relations with foreign insurers. Medium-sized insurance companies, targeting regional economic entities, play a crucial role in the insurance market. To improve the efficiency of Russian insurance, the number of medium-sized companies operating in regional markets must increase. To regulate their capitalization, special conditions must be developed, focusing on capital adequacy requirements and financial stability parameters. While earlier research has examined what factors might impact profitability growth, the investment income factor in maintaining corporate financial stability has been underexplored. This paper aims to explore conditions for improving insurers' financial soundness through growth of a company's internal capitalization. Medium-sized insurance companies often struggle to meet regulators' minimum capital requirements (a core variable linked with companies’ capitalization) leading to potential market shrinkage. Our hypothesis is that it possible to create a financial reserve that meets the regulator’s increasing equity requirements without raising additional external investments. This study examined the factors which impacted the growth of medium-sized insurance companies operating in the emerging markets. Operating results of seven randomly selected medium-sized insurance companies in 2014–2022 were used for the analysis. The paper suggests that institutionalization of insurance companies' capitalization is crucial to minimize the risk of capital inadequacy. The study contributes to our understanding of how medium-sized insurance companies can be governed and suggests a way to increase their capitalization.

Nowadays, the number of companies leaving the stock exchange is steadily increasing. Researchers and practitioners continue to actively discuss the reasons for voluntary delisting and explore the factors that influence the probability of it. However, the results of existing studies are heterogeneous and inconclusive, indicating the need for further research. This paper continues the line of research on the determinants of voluntary delisting by studying the delisting of Russian companies. Unlike previous studies, we identify and compare the factors that influence the decision to delist at different stages of the organization’s life cycle. We argue that delisting factors, although specific to each company, should remain similar for firms at the same stage of development. The company-related factors that we test include investment expenditures, profitability, stock volatility and book-to-market ratio. The study is based on a sample of 162 public Russian companies traded on the Moscow Exchange, of which 75 delisted between 2011 and 2019. The Bloomberg database was used to generate the sample of companies. Using the panel probit regression model, we found that firms with greater investment expenditures are less likely to delist at the Introduction and more likely at the Maturity and Decline stages. The results of our research also show that firm stock volatility had a positive effect on the delisting probability of Russian firms at all stages of their life cycle, except for the Introduction stage. Finally, we demonstrate that companies at the Introduction and Growth stages are more likely to leave the stock exchange if they have a greater book-to-market ratio. The results of our study can be used by financial analysts and academics to analyze the probability of delisting of public companies at different life cycle stages.

This paper conducts a comprehensive literature review of the factors influencing the emergence of the CEO investment horizon problem – a preference for short-term investments over long-term ones. The root cause of this CEO issue, as in-dicated in existing literature, is often attributed to the CEO's personal risk attitude, shaped by factors like age, tenure, and cultural background.
Numerous sources contributing to the short-term investment problem in public companies are described in the current academic literature. Prominent among these determinants are the challenges of quarterly reporting, the association of corporate performance with short-term metrics, market pressures, and the company's specific risk profile. A study by McKinsey & Company, focused on the short horizon problem, demonstrates that companies inclined toward short-term investments exhibit weaker fundamentals and performance. The consulting firm Ernst & Young has introduced the Long-term Orientation Index, offering a basis for cross-country comparison of decision horizons. In 2010, Antia and colleagues introduced a metric for measuring CEO decision horizons, which relies on CEO personal characteristics. Despite these efforts, a comprehensive literature review addressing the specificity of the CEO investment horizon problem and its dis-tinctions from the broader corporate investment horizon problem has been absent.
This paper not only investigates the initial empirical exploration of the short investment horizon problem but also raises questions about its cross-country manifestations, its potential correlation with economic crises, and the relevant personal traits of CEOs for its study. Finally, the paper proposes various strategies to mitigate the CEO investment horizon problem within companies.