Post-Bipolar Middle East: Moving from Conflicts to Sustainable Development in an Emerging Multipolar World

After the collapse of the bipolar system of international relations, the contemporary macro-region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) still encompasses more than two dozen states that differ in terms of their political regimes, economic models and levels of socio-economic development. The region also experiences a variety of conflicts, divided by type into interstate, internal, and hybrid with the participation of both states and non-state actors (NSA). Furthermore, these conflicts can be categorized as territorial, ideological, political, ethnic, religious, and economic, and can vary in intensity and degree of internationalization. The contradictory nature of MENA is manifested by the parallel genesis of the foci of sustainable development, which determine the interest of states in establishing long-lasting peace. This is correlated with the significant role of MENA as a transit point in global logistics projects, such as the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative and the India - Middle East - Europe transport corridor. The uncertainty surrounding the political and military scenarios on which MENA countries depend highlights the importance of expert assessments and forecasts, which explains the relevance of the topic of the present study. The author sets out to prove the thesis that, despite the escalation of tensions and the failure of the US’s attempts to “pacify” the region on a monetary basis, mostly taking into account the interests of Israel, but not other countries, the chances of avoiding a large-scale regional war remain. Facing the transition from the unipolar to a multipolar world, this could be linked to both the sovereignization of the foreign policies of MENA countries and the diplomacy of the new global centers of power, including Russia and China. Based on a wide range of Russian and foreign sources together with his own field research data, the author applies the principle of historicism using a systemic approach and analyzing processes in retrospective dynamics. The novelty of the research lies in the fact that the author, guided by the principle of the connection between theory and practice and turning to the theory of deeply divided societies (DDSs), introduces the concept of “deeply divided region” (DDR) into the scientific domain. The practical significance of the study is embodied by a few recommendations for implementing the 2023 Concept of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation.