MODEL FOR FORECASTING OF VOLUME AND STRUCTURE “GREY IMPORT”
- Autores: Anisimov VG1, Anisimov EG2, Gapov MR3, Saurenko TN4
-
Afiliações:
- Peter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic University
- Russian customs academy
- Ministry of Economic Development of Karachay-Cherkess Republic
- Peoples’ friendship University of Russia
- Edição: Volume 25, Nº 1 (2017)
- Páginas: 63-73
- Seção: ARTICLES
- URL: https://journal-vniispk.ru/2313-2329/article/view/343021
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.22363/2313-2329-2017-25-1-63-73
- ID: 343021
Citar
Texto integral
Resumo
The revenues of the Federal budget of the Russian Federation to a significant extent, is formed at the expense of customs payments. Hence, in the case of large amounts of “gray import”, the state’s economy can be significantly affected. The performance measures against “gray import” depends on the timely and adequate prediction of its structure and volumes. This forecast assumes the availability of appropriate models. However, the currently known models do not provide the timeliness and adequacy of the forecast.The article suggests a model for the current prediction of volume and structure of “gray import”. The model allowed stochastic representation of the “gray imports”, simulating the processes of its formation. This simulation allows more adequately than the commonly used regression and expert models, considering available information about the “gray import” and thereby improves prediction accuracy its volume and structure. The information basis of the proposed model are data of the risk management system of the Federal customs service of the Russian Federation. The application of the proposed model allows near real-time to predict the structure and volume of “gray imports” and on this basis to develop the necessary measures to counter it.
Palavras-chave
Sobre autores
V Anisimov
Peter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic University
Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: an-33@yandex.ru
Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of the Department of Information Systems in Economics and Management, St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Peter the Great
Polytechnic str., 29, St. Petersburg, Russia, 195251E Anisimov
Russian customs academy
Email: an-33@rambler.ru
Doctor of technical sciences, Professor, Director of the Research Institute of the RTA
Komsomolsky Avenue, 4, Lyubertsy, Moscow Region, Russia, 140009M Gapov
Ministry of Economic Development of Karachay-Cherkess Republic
Email: mgapov@gmail.com
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Karachay-Cherkess Republic
Komsomolskaya str., 23, Cherkessk, Russia, 369000T Saurenko
Peoples’ friendship University of Russia
Email: tanya@saurenko.ru
Doctor of Economics, Head of the Department of Customs at RUDN University
Miklukho-Maklaya str., 6, Moscow, Russia, 117198Bibliografia
- Anisimov V.G., Anisimov Ye.G., Arslanov R.F., Arslanova A.P., Bogoeva Ye.M., Goloskokov V.I., Lipatova N.G., Popov V.V., Saurenko T.N., Tebekin A.V. Ekonomicheskiy i tamozhennyy risk-menenedzhment: monografiya. M.: RIO Rossiyskoy tamozhennoy akademii, 2015. 180 s. (In Russ).
- Anisimov V.G., Anisimov Ye.G., Bogoeva Ye.M., Saurenko T.N., Garkushev A.Yu. Metodologicheskie osnovy postroeniya pokazateley effektivnosti kontrolnoy deyatelnosti organov gosudarstvennoy vlasti. Voprosy oboronnoy tekhniki. Seriya 16: Tekhnicheskie sredstva protivodeystviya terrorizmu. 2015. № 3-4. S. 17—20. (In Russ).
- Anisimov V.G., Anisimov Ye.G., Kokhanova N.M., Malkova A.L. Vybor struktury proizvodstvennykh funktsiy na osnove sinteza bezalternativnykh statisticheskikh gipotez. Vestnik Rossiyskoy tamozhennoy akademii. 2008. № 4. S. 74—79. (In Russ).
- Anisimov V.G., Anisimov Ye.G., Martyshchenko L.A., Shatokhin D.V. Metody operativnogo statisticheskogo analiza rezultatov vyborochnogo kontrolya kachestva promyshlennoy produktsii. SPb.; Tula: Mezhdunarodnaya akademiya informatizatsii, 2001. 72 s. (In Russ).
- Anisimov Ye.G., Anisimov V.G., Saurenko T.N. Tamozhennaya politika v sisteme natsionalnoy bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Vestnik Rossiyskoy tamozhennoy akademii. 2015. № 1 (30). S. 14—19. (In Russ).
- Anisimov Ye.G., Arslanov R.F., Arslanova A.P., Afonin P.N., Kozhukhanov N.M., Lipatova N.G., Popov V.V., Somov Yu.I. Teoreticheskie osnovy primeneniya sistemy upravleniya riskami v tamozhennoy sluzhbe Rossiyskoy Federatsii: nauchno-metodicheskoe posobie. M.: Izd-vo Rossiyskoy tamozhennoy akademii, 2015. 282 s. (In Russ).
- [Vedernikov Yu.V., Garkushev A.Yu., Anisimov V.G., Anisimov E.G., Sazykin A.M. Modeli i algoritmy intellektualizacii avtomatizirovannogo upravleniya diversifikaciey deyatelnosti promyshlennogo predpriyatiya. Voprosy oboronnoy tehniki. Seriya 16: Tehnicheskie sredstva protivodeystviya terrorizmu. 2014. № 5-6. S. 61—72. (In Russ).
- Lobas E.V., Anisimov V.G., Anisimov E.G., Bystrov A.G., Metod ocenivaniya obosnovannosti upravlencheskih resheniy. Vestnik Rossiyskoy tamozhennoy akademii. 2008. № 2. S. 103—106 (In Russ).
- Yastrebov O.A., Yakovlev Yu.V. Organizaciya upravleniya i razmescheniya zakazov v slozhnyh proektah, realizuemyh v forme gosudarstvenno-chastnogo partnerstva. Sb. «Ekonomika i upravlenie v stroitelstve i zhilischno-kommunalnom hozyaystve: materialy kruglogo stola Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii “Aktualnye problemy arhitektury i stroite’stva”», 20—21 dekabrya 2011 g. / pod obsch. red. E.B. Smirnova. SPb.: SPbGASU, 2011. 90 s. (In Russ).
- Yastrebov O.A., Yakovlev Yu.V. Organizaciya i shema finansirovaniya tipovogo proekta gosudarstvenno-chastnogo partnerstva. Sb. «Ekonomika i upravlenie v stroitelstve i zhilischno-kommunalnom hozyaystve: materialy kruglogo stola Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii «Aktualnye problemy arhitektury i stroitelstva», 20—21 dekabrya 2011 g. / pod obsch. red. E.B. Smirnova. SPb.: SPbGASU, 2011. 90 s. (In Russ).
Arquivos suplementares
