Forecast of the development of thermal erosion processes in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug under modern climate changes

The study of exogenous processes and their effects on natural and anthropogenic systems is a very important aspect for the development of Arctic territories. One of these processes is thermal erosion, which is widespread in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District due to the presence of permafrost in the vast majority of its area. The main prerequisites for the manifestation of thermal erosion processes can be divided into several groups of factors. Firstly, the geomorphological characteristics of the territory play a key role: the lengths and slopes. Secondly, the lithological and granulometric composition of rocks, as well as ice content and temperature, determine the resistance of the soil to the thermal and mechanical effects of flowing water. Thirdly, the amount of precipitation is an important factor, especially precipitation in winter and heavy rainfall in summer. They contribute to a high concentration of runoff in short periods of time, which leads to rapid destruction of rocks and the removal of large volumes of loose material. Finally, the fixation of the top layer of soils by the root system can be considered the main reason that counteracts the development of thermal erosion. The purpose of this study is a prognostic assessment of the risks of the development of thermal erosion processes in the context of the observed climate warming. To assess the risks, data from climate modeling of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District for the middle of the XXI century were used for an ensemble of climate models included in the CMIP6 project. The analysis of Google Earth satellite images and information about the geological and geomorphological features of the region are used for zoning the territory in terms of dynamics and dangers of thermal erosion. The result of the study was the compilation of a map of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District by categories of risks associated with thermal erosion processes. It is shown that in the perspective of several decades, more than 50% of the region's area is subject to intensification of thermal erosion destruction of soils, which requires careful planning of economic development and design of protective structures. An attempt has been made to assess the impact of erosive and thermoerosive effects on the natural environment of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug due to climate change using the recommendations of this assessment by Order of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation dated 05/13/2021 N 267. Climatic factors can seriously enhance the causes and negative consequences of the development of thermoerosion, while local manifestations should be assessed using field data based on the calculation methods.

thermal erosion, climate changes, frozen grounds, Arctic, Yamal, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, exogenous processes, permafrost, ice wedges, Western Siberia