Russia and Turkey's Relations in the South Caucasus: Managed Rivalry as a New Interaction Model

The article is dedicated to the analysis of the transformation of Russian-Turkish relations in the South Caucasus in the context of geopolitical changes triggered by the Second Karabakh War of 2020. The subject of the research is the emerging model of interaction between the two regional powers, conceptualized by the author as "managed rivalry" or "coerced normalization." Within this framework, four key dimensions of Russian-Turkish interaction in the region are analyzed: military-political, trade-economic, energy, and informational-ideological. Special attention is paid to the transformation of regional alliances – strengthening the Azerbaijani-Turkish strategic partnership while simultaneously weakening the Russian-Armenian alliance. The mechanisms of deconfliction that allow Russia and Turkey to maintain a constructive dialogue despite the objective mismatch of strategic interests are explored. Furthermore, the prospects for the implementation of transport projects (the Zangezur Corridor, the Middle Corridor) and their impact on the regional balance of power, as well as the competition of ideological narratives – Turkish neo-Ottomanism and the Russian Eurasian project – are discussed. The study employs a comprehensive approach that combines a comparative analysis of the foreign policy strategies of Russia and Turkey, a case study method to examine specific manifestations of rivalry and cooperation, and elements of systemic analysis of regional security. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the conceptualization of a qualitatively new model of Russian-Turkish relations in the South Caucasus – "managed rivalry," which goes beyond traditional theoretical approaches that consider the relations of the two powers either through the lens of confrontation or strategic partnership. This model captures the paradoxical combination of competition and pragmatic cooperation, wherein both sides, recognizing the objective mismatch of interests, build coordination mechanisms to prevent uncontrolled escalation. The author identifies the structural characteristics of this model: the formation of informal delineation of spheres of influence, the institutionalization of dialogue mechanisms at the highest level, the development of parallel economic projects, and the competition of ideological narratives while avoiding direct confrontation. Together, all this represents an original approach to preventing potential conflicts, which have repeatedly occurred throughout history.

Russia, Turkey, South Caucasus, Karabakh conflict, managed rivalry, regional security, neo-Ottomanism, energy diplomacy, Zangezur corridor, geopolitics