CBDC as a tool for optimizing cross-border settlements in Kazakhstan: an analysis based on modeling

cross-border settlements remain a complex and resource-intensive process for many economies, including Kazakhstan, which faces traditional challenges of high costs, lengthy transaction times, and operational risks. This article explores the potential of central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a tool for optimizing cross-border settlements in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The methodological foundation is an economic-mathematical model—specifically, a stochastic optimization model—that takes into account key parameters of cross-border flows: transaction costs (conversion fees, interbank charges), settlement speed (from initiation to final completion), and risk indicators (credit, settlement, and currency risk). The model is calibrated using data on the structure and volume of Kazakhstan’s current cross-border payments, obtained from the statistics of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan and payment systems, as well as expert assessments of existing bottlenecks. The modeling results demonstrate significant optimization potential for the introduction of CBDC. The model indicates the possibility of substantially reducing the total costs for participants in cross-border settlements (in the range of X%–Y% compared to current systems) by eliminating intermediary chains and simplifying the conversion process. At the same time, it achieves a radical reduction in transaction times—settlements can occur in near real time (T0 or T+1) instead of taking several days under traditional schemes. The model also records a decrease in systemic risks thanks to the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT), which ensures transparency and immutability of records, and the direct participation of the central bank as the system operator. The discussion emphasizes that realizing this potential requires addressing legal and regulatory issues, ensuring interoperability with other CBDCs and traditional systems, and managing cyber risks. The study concludes that CBDC represents a promising instrument for fundamentally enhancing the efficiency and resilience of Kazakhstan’s cross-border settlements, thereby promoting its further integration into the global financial system.

Central bank digital currency, cross-border settlements, Kazakhstan, stochastic optimization, payment systems