Modeling and real demographic processes in rural settlements of Tambov Oblast in 2010–2020

This study aims to reconstruct the demographic strategies of peasant micro-societies in Tambov Oblast between 2010 and 2020. The research encompasses all 1,648 settlements in the region and forms part of a larger project on the fractal modeling of demographic strategies within the agrarian population of European Russia over a long-term historical perspective, from the mid-19th century onward. The authors sought to come closer to answering questions about the factors that underlie the demographic resilience of local communities and the potential for their demographic development (scenarios of desolation/stabilization/growth). Furthermore, the modeled strategies were compared with known data on real demographic processes. This approach was used not only to verify the model but also to identify unique combinations of demographic factors (those that do not fit the model and therefore generate results that differ from those predicted). To run experiments using the proposed computer model, a database was created that formalizes the key parameters of the studied settlements. The authors conclude that a majority of these settlements are undergoing a demo-migration transition – a difficult shift in migration intentions. The model forecasts that most of them are going to eventually disappear as a result of this transition. The remainder will develop into relatively stable communities that balance out-migration with natural population growth. Yet, despite a persistent negative net migration, the actual decline in the rural population and the disappearance of settlements proceeded less fast during the study period than the model predicted. The authors propose a hypothesis that the realization of migration intentions is less likely possible as the rural population approaches the optimum size required for modern farming methods. In conclusion, the authors emphasize the importance of applying new technologies, including remote sensing, to the study of natural, historical, and socio-economic factors shaping the development of rural settlements.

historical demography, demographic processes, history of Russia, rural population, Central Black Earth region, demographic strategies, natural population increase, migration, modeling, computational experiments