Approaches to the assessment of economic damage from natural hazards for the railway infrastructure (the case of the Russian Federation)

The article proposes a methodological approach to the quantitative assessment of direct economic damage from natural hazards for an element of the critical infrastructure of the Russian Federation – railways. The methodology is based on a normative approach to assessing the replacement cost of railway lines, which varies depending on the cost of construction in specific orographic and climatic conditions of a given region. The results are presented in the context of municipalities, which makes it easier to take into account intra-regional differences and to compare them with natural hazard parameters (e.g. floods, dangerous slopes, geocryological processes, etc.). The calculations showed that the marginal cost of replacing railway lines in the event of natural hazards for Russia is about RUB 11 trillion in 2021 prices, or about 8.4% of Russia’s GDP for that year. In a regional context, the first 10 regions account for more than 40% of the total replacement cost, which indicates that these regions require special attention in terms of measures to protect railway assets. These include Irkutsk oblast (RUB 602.4 bln), Khabarovsk krai (595.5), Amur oblast (594.4), Zabaykalsky krai (538.2), Sverdlovsk oblast (526.8), Krasnoyarsk krai (406.8), Altai krai (404.3), Krasnodar krai (348.5), Republic of Buryatia (314.1), Primorsky krai (287.7). The data obtained can be used in studies of natural and man-made risks: by comparing them with the parameters characterising the impact of natural hazards, it is possible to predict the risk and probable damage to railway infrastructure facilities in the given territories. Avalanches and permafrost degradation are used to demonstrate the potential of such assessments.