Foreign migrants in the Moscow agglomeration: spatial and temporal analysis based on data from mobile operators

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Abstract

The article analyzes the modern ethnic landscape of the Moscow agglomeration on the basis of data from mobile operators. The estimation of the number of foreign migrants and its monthly dynamics from October 2021 to October 2022 is made. The main areas of residence of foreigners have been identified, the ethnic diversity of municipalities has been assessed, and the main types of settlement pattern of national-ethnic communities have been identified. The study showed that the total number of foreign migrants in the agglomeration reaches 1.8 million people or 9% of the total population, remaining almost unchanged in spite of events of 2022, including the special military operation. The share of foreigners is minimal in ZATO (below 3%), it is also insignificant in the far suburbs of Moscow and in expensive districts of the capital city. At the same time, the threshold of 17% (the so-called “boiling point”, reflecting a sharp increase in the risks of interethnic conflicts and ghettoization of urban space) was overcome by 8 municipalities in the agglomeration. The two most noticeable areas of increased concentration of foreign migrants are identified in the south-east at the junction of Moscow and Moscow region (Lublino – Kotelniki) and in New Moscow (Mosrentgen – Sosenskoye). The calculation of the Ekkel ethnic mosaic index confirmed the presence of pronounced interethnic contact zones here. Increased index values were also noted in most central and southwest districts of Moscow, which, with a smaller proportion of foreigners living, are associated with a high density of offices, diplomatic institutions and universities. Three types of settlement patterns of national-ethnic groups of migrants, determined by the adaptive capabilities of ethnic communities, were revealed. Diffuse and relatively uniform settlement pattern is characteristic for both the most massive ethnic groups (citizens of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan) and the most culturally close to the local population (citizens of Ukraine and Belarus). Concentric settlement pattern (in residential areas of Moscow and satellite cities) is typical for relatively large ethnic groups coming from post-Soviet countries (citizens of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia). The local settlement pattern is typical for small ethnic communities that gravitate to specific districts of the capital city.

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About the authors

R. А. Babkin

Plekhanov Russian University of Economics; Research Institute of Labor of the Ministry of Labor of Russia

Author for correspondence.
Email: babkin_ra@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

A. G. Makhrova

Lomonosov Moscow State University

Email: almah@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

D. M. Medvednikova

Lomonosov Moscow State University; The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Email: darina.medvednikova@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. Dynamics of the number of foreigners permanently residing in the Moscow region, October 2021 – October 2022.

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3. Fig. 2. Share of migrants in the population of municipalities of Moscow and the Moscow region, October 2021 – October 2022 The numbers on the maps indicate districts by administrative districts of Old Moscow (I), settlements by administrative districts of New Moscow (II) and urban districts of the Moscow region (III). I. Old Moscow: Zelenograd Administrative Okrug (ZelAO): 1 - Kryukovo, 2 - Matushkino, 3 - Savelki, 4 - Silino, 5 - Staroye Kryukovo; Central Administrative Okrug (CAD): 1 - Arbat, 2 - Basmanny, 3 - Zamoskvorechye, 4 - Krasnoselsky, 5 - Meshchansky, 6 - Presnensky, 7 - Tagansky, 8 - Tverskoy, 9 - Khamovniki, 10 - Yakimanka; Northern Administrative District (SAO): 1 – Aeroport, 2 – Begovoy, 3 – Beskudnikovsky, 4 – Voykovsky, 5 – Vostochnoye Degunino, 6 – Golovinsky, 7 – Dmitrovsky, 8 – Zapadnoye Degunino, 9 – Koptevo, 10 – Levoberezhny, 11 – Molzhaninovsky, 12 – Savelovsky, 13 – Sokol, 14 – Timiryazevsky, 15 – Khovrino, 16 – Khoroshevsky; North-Eastern Administrative District (SVAO): 1 - Alekseevsky, 2 - Altufevsky, 3 - Babushkinsky, 4 - Bibirevo, 5 - Butyrsky, 6 - Lianozovo, 7 - Losinoostrovsky, 8 - Marfino, 9 - Maryina Roshcha, 10 - Ostankinsky, 11 - Otradnoye, 12 - Rostokino, 13 - Sviblovo, 14 - Severnoye Medvedkovo, 15 - Severny, 16 - Yuzhnoye Medvedkovo, 17 - Yaroslavsky; Eastern Administrative District (VAO): 1 - Bogorodskoye, 2 - Veshnyaki, 3 - Vostochnoye Izmailovo, 4 - Vostochny, 5 - Golyanovo, 6 - Ivanovskoye, 7 - Izmailovo, 8 - Kosino-Ukhtomsky, 9 - Metrogorodok, 10 - Novogireevo, 11 - Novokosino, 12 - Perovo, 13 - Preobrazhenskoye, 14 - Severnoye Izmailovo, 15 - Sokolinaya Gora, 16 - Sokolniki; South-Eastern Administrative District (SEAD): 1 – Vykhino-Zhulebino, 2 – Kapotnya, 3 – Kuzminki, 4 – Lefortovo, 5 – Lyublino, 6 – Maryino, 7 – Nekrasovka, 8 – Nizhegorodsky, 9 – Pechatniki, 10 – Ryazansky, 11 – Tekstilshchiki, 12 – Yuzhnoportovy; Southern Administrative District (SAD): 1 – Biryulevo Vostochnoye, 2 – Biryulevo Zapadnoye, 3 – Brateevo, 4 – Danilovsky, 5 – Donskoy, 6 – Zyablikovo, 7 – Moskvorechye-Saburovo, 8 – Nagatino-Sadovniki, 9 – Nagatinsky Zaton, 10 – Nagorny, 11 – Orekhovo-Borisovo Severnoye, 12 – Orekhovo-Borisovo Yuzhnoye, 13 – Tsaritsyno, 14 – Chertanovo Severnoye, 15 – Chertanovo Tsentralnoye, 16 – Chertanovo Yuzhnoye; South-Western Administrative District (SWAD): 1 - Akademichesky, 2 - Gagarinsky, 3 - Zyuzino, 4 - Konkovo, 5 - Kotlovka, 6 - Lomonosovsky, 7 - Obruchevsky, 8 - Severnoye Butovo, 9 - Teply Stan, 10 - Cheryomushki, 11 - Yuzhnoye Butovo, 12 - Yasenevo; Western Administrative District (ZAD): 1 - Vnukovo, 2 - Dorogomilovo, 3 - Krylatskoye, 4 - Kuntsevo, 5 - Mozhaysky, 6 - Novo-Peredelkino, 7 - Ochakovo-Matveyevskoye, 8 - Prospekt Vernadskogo, 9 - Ramenki, 10 - Solntsevo, 11 - Troparevo-Nikulino, 12 - Filevsky Park, 13 - Fili-Davydkovo; North-Western Administrative Okrug (SZAO): 1 - Kurkino, 2 - Mitino, 3 - Pokrovskoye-Streshnevo, 4 - Severnoye Tushino, 5 - Strogino, 6 - Khoroshevo-Mnevniki, 7 - Shchukino, 8 - Yuzhnoye Tushino. II. New Moscow: Novomoskovsky Administrative Okrug (NAO): 1 - Vnukovskoye, 2 - Voskresenskoye, 3 - Desyonovskoye, 4 - Kokoshkino, 5 - Marushkinskoye, 6 - Moskovsky, 7 - Mosrentgen, 8 - Ryazanovskoye, 9 - Sosenskoye, 10 - Filimonkovskoye, 11 - Shcherbinka; Troitsky Administrative Okrug (TAO): 1 – Voronovskoye, 2 – Kyiv, 3 – Klenovskoye, 4 – Krasnopakhorskoye, 5 – Mikhailovo-Yartsevskoye, 6 – Novofedorovskoye, 7 – Pervomayskoye, 8 – Rogovskoye, 9 – Troitsk, 10 – Shchapovskoye. III. Moscow region: 1 – Balashikha, 2 – Bronnitsy, 3 – Vidnoye (Leninsky), 4 – Vlasikha, 5 – Volokolamsk, 6 – Voskresensk, 7 – Voskhod, 8 – Dzerzhinsky, 9 – Dmitrov, 10 – Dolgoprudny, 11 – Domodedovo, 12 – Dubna, 13 – Yegoryevsk, 14 – Zhukovsky, 15 – Zaraysk, 16 – Zvezdny Gorodok, 17 – Istra, 18 – Kashira, 19 – Klin, 20 – Kolomna, 21 – Korolev, 22 – Kotelniki, 23 – Krasnogorsk, 24 – Krasnoznamensk, 25 – Lobnya, 26 – Losino-Petrovsky, 27 – Lotoshino, 28 – Lukhovitsy, 29 – Lytkarino, 30 – Lyubertsy, 31 – Mozhaisk, 32 – Molodezhny, 33 – Mytishchi, 34 – Naro-Fominsk, 35 – Noginsk (Bogorodsky), 36 – Odintsovo, 37 – Orekhovo-Zuyevo, 38 – Pavlovsky Posad, 39 – Podolsk, 40 – Protvino, 41 – Pushkino, 42 – Pushchino, 43 – Ramenskoye, 44 – Reutov, 45 – Ruza, 46 – Sergiev Posad, 47 – Serebryanye Prudy, 48 – Serpukhov, 49 – Solnechnogorsk, 50 – Stupino, 51 – Taldom, 52 – Fryazino, 53 – Khimki, 54 – Chernogolovka, 55 – Chekhov, 56 – Shatura, 57 – Shakhovskaya, 58 – Shchyolkovo, 59 – Elektrogorsk, 60 – Elektrostal.

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4. Fig. 3. Ethnic contact zones of Moscow and the Moscow region. See the digital designations of districts/settlements by administrative districts of Moscow and urban districts of the Moscow region in the caption to Fig. 2.

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5. Fig. 4. Types of settlement of national-ethnic groups in Moscow and the nearest Moscow region: a) diffuse – Tajikistan; b) concentric – Armenia; c) local – EU, Great Britain and USA. For the digital designations of districts by administrative districts of Moscow, see the caption to Fig. 2.

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