Climatic Prerequisites for Changes of Zonal and Subzonal Landscape Boundaries in European Russia and Western Siberia

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Abstract

Global warming is manifesting itself in varying degrees of intensity in the changing landscapes of the Russian plains. Productivity, biomass and boundaries of vegetation vary according to the dynamics of heat supply and humidification. A shift in landscape zone boundaries may be a consequence of global warming in the last two decades. This work evaluates changes in the climatic characteristics of natural landscapes in the Russian plains. The studies were conducted in the European part of Russia and Western Siberia, from arctic to semi–desert landscapes. Data from 265 weather stations on the territory of Russia were used for the period 2000–2022, as well as the normalised vegetation index NDVI for the summer period (quantitative indicator of photosynthetic active biomass). The following climatic parameters were taken into account: mean annual temperature, temperature in January and July, sum of temperatures above 10°C, annual precipitation, humidification coefficient and their means and standard deviations and trends for the period 2000–2022. It was found that a positive trend of the sum of active temperatures and a negative trend of precipitation are observed in the forest tundra zone. The humidification coefficient is decreasing. Climatic conditions are changing at several sites, such as tundra, forest tundra, northern and middle taiga, and now correspond to more southern landscape zones. This creates favourable conditions for changes in vegetation and is reflected in the increase in NDVI, which may lead to a shift in the boundaries of landscape zones to higher latitudes. In southern Russia, an increase in the sum of active temperatures and drainage of the territory is observed, which is reflected in a decrease in NDVI and can lead to an expansion of steppe, dry steppe and semi-desert zones. The response of vegetation cover to climate change is confirmed by changes in the normalised vegetation index.

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About the authors

V. V. Vinogradova

Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences; HSE University

Author for correspondence.
Email: vvvinog@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

T. B. Titkova

Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: titkova@igras.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. Quasi-homogeneous climatic regions (boundaries are shown by black coloured lines): I - Atlantic Arctic; IV, V, VI, VII, VIII - north-west, north-east, south-west, south-east and steppe part of the East European Plain; IX - steppes and foothills of the North Caucasus; X, XI - northern and southern parts of the forest zone of Western Siberia, XII - steppe zone of Western Siberia (Report ..., 2023). Landscape zones are shown in colour (National ..., 2007, pp. 398-399): 1 - arctic desert, 2 - tundra, 3 - forest tundra, 4 - northern taiga, 5 - middle taiga, 6 - southern taiga, 7 - sub-taiga zone, 8 - broad-leaved forest, 9 - forest-steppe, 10 - steppe, 11 - dry steppe, 12 - semi-desert, 13 - highland landscapes, 14 - lowland landscapes

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3. Fig. 2. Trend of NDVI/10 years for the summer period of 2000-2022. The trend is significant at values greater than (less than) 0.02/10 years. Boundaries of landscape zones/subzones: 1 - arctic, 2 - tundra, 3 - forest-tundra, 4 - northern taiga, 5 - middle taiga, 6 - southern taiga, 7 - sub-taiga, 8 - broad-leaved forests, 9 - forest-steppe, 10 - typical and dry-steppe steppes

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4. Fig. 3. Climatic preconditions of possible changes in landscape zones/subzones of the Russian plains according to meteorological stations. The colour of the weather station shows its correspondence to the landscape zone before 2000: 1 - Arctic deserts, 2 - tundra, 3 - forest tundra, 4 - northern taiga, 5 - middle taiga, 6 - southern taiga, 7 - sub-taiga zone, 8 - broad-leaved forest zone, 9 - forest-steppe, 10 - steppe, 11 - dry steppe, 12 - semi-desert, 13 - high-mountain landscapes, 14 - climatic indicators in the current climate (2000-2020) do not correspond to the landscape zone. See Fig. 1 for landscape zone designations

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