Assessment of thermal characteristics of lakes in the permafrost zone by mathematical modelling (on the example of lakes in Yakutia)

The purpose of the study is to identify the possibilities of mathematical modeling in solving problems of quantitative assessment and prediction of hydrothermodynamic characteristics of lakes of different origins in the permafrost zone based on available information about their morphometry. The object of the study is 420 of morphometrically studied lakes in Yakutia of different genetic origin. The choice of an adequate hydrothermodynamic model of processes in the “atmosphere – lake – bottom sediments” system, as well as sources of information on the atmospheric impact on lakes (reanalysis and climate prediction) for the studied region was substantiated. Simulation calculations were carried out to assess the retrospective interannual and intraannual dynamics of abiotic processes in water and bottom sediments of lakes located in the permafrost zone of different climatic regions of Yakutia. To assess the interannual dynamics of the studied processes in water and bottom sediments of thermokarst lakes located in permafrost zones and being the most widespread in the region, forecast calculations were carried out. In this case, two RCP scenarios for the evolution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere in the future were used – “best” and “worst” in terms of environmental impact. The prospects for further use of modeling methods in the creation of a system of remote monitoring of unstudied and poorly studied lakes in the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation was assessed.