The role of agroforestry systems in the production of Triticum aestivum (regional level)

Background. Despite the proven effect of forest reclamation systems on increasing the yield of individual crops at specific research sites, the question of the reliability of the participation of the forest cover factor in yield, among many other influencing factors, remains open. The paper presents for the first time the results of research on the influence of a complex of factors: the forest cover of research facilities (districts of the Volgograd region) in the form of areas of protective forest plantations, soil fertility (humus) and precipitation on the yield of winter wheat, the main grain crop of arid territories.

Materials and methods. The optimal indicator of the forest cover of agricultural land, adopted in the study, is 1.5%. A methodology for calculating the forest cover of territories belonging to other categories has been applied. Long-term time series (50 years) have been constructed and analyzed for the objects of research winter wheat yields and precipitation. The methodology of statistical analysis includes multiple regression, analysis of the coefficients of paired, partial and multiple correlations, as well as their reliability and significance.

Results. Data for the period from 1973 to 2022 confirmed the zonal differences in the yield of the crop under study, which proves the constant influence of soil and climatic conditions on agricultural production in changing climate conditions. A reliable correlation of the average degree between the yield and the areas of protective forest plantations was revealed and it amounted to 0.51, It was confirmed by t-criterion of 1.86 at α 0.10. A strong connection was found between yield and soil fertility (humus), yield and rainfall – 0.85; 0.86. T- criterion amounted to 5.1 at α 0.01 (0.99). The impact of the complex of factors on yield indicators was calculated by multiple regression. The coefficient of determination R2 = 0.824 obtained in the regression model indicates that 82.4% of variations in yield are explained by the studied factors. The remaining percentages are considered to be unaccounted factors. The obtained p-values of the studied factors as soil fertility (humus) of 0.18 and precipitation of 0.40 are statistically important at a significance level of α 0.10.

Conclusion. This study indicates that there is a significant contribution of grain to the productivity of agricultural land, represented by the yield of fall wheat. There is a need to create artificial plantations on agricultural lands and bring their areas to optimal forest cover indicators in order the agricultural industry to function more effectively.