Birth Rate in Russian Regions: Spatial Patterns at the Municipal Level

The article examines the spatial distribution of fertility at the municipal level in those regions of Russia that showed one of the best fertility dynamics in Russia during its nationwide rise in 2000-2015. (Vologda, Kurgan, Sverdlovsk, Tyumen, Sakhalin regions). The aim of the work is to identify spatial patterns of birth rate distribution at the intraregional, municipal level. The indicators of the Database of municipalities of Rosstat were used for the study. Special fertility rates for municipalities were calculated and maps were built. It turned out that the maximum birth rate was observed in predominantly rural municipal areas remote from large cities and in urban districts with little urbanization. They also proved to be the most stable on the general downward trend, maintaining relatively high birth rates. The minimum birth rate was observed in the largest, large, sometimes medium-sized cities and in the territories closest to them, as well as during the period of decline – in areas with a minimum share of the rural population and in areas where there was a reduction (optimization) of district hospitals. Comprehensive support for rural areas through the development of labor-intensive agricultural production, rural infrastructure, and equalization of intra- and inter-regional differences in income and social security, among other measures, can support the birth rate in the regions. In cities, it is necessary to launch programs for the mass construction of individual residential buildings instead of predominantly multi-store buildings, which will facilitate the establishment of more children in families. The expansion of the income base of regional economies leads to an increase in the birth rate in them, to the possibility of introducing special measures to stimulate the birth rate, as in the Sakhalin region. On the contrary, a decrease in the gross regional product in real terms leads to a decrease in the birth rate even if there are measures to support it. It is necessary to reduce the concentration of economic entities and the population in metropolitan agglomerations, as prescribed in the recommendations of the Federation Council and in the National Security Strategy.

birth rate, municipalities, regional development, demography, natural population growth, spatial development, rural areas, rural territories