German Agricultural Policy in the Context of Geopolitical Shocks and the Environmental Agenda

This article investigates the transformation of Germany's agricultural policy and its agricultural sector from 2015 to 2025 under the impact of multiple global crises: the COVID₁₉ pandemic, the Special Military Operation (SVO), sanctions pressure, and climate challenges. Through comprehensive institutional analysis combining quantitative and qualitative methods, the study examines the sequence of sectoral support measures, evolving patterns of agricultural land use, and changing practices in fertilizer and pesticide application, all confirming the systemic nature of this transformation. By synthesizing policy measures and sector responses, the authors identify a paradigm shift in Germany's agricultural policy - from stable production support under the EU's Common Agricultural Policy toward an adaptation regime focused on ensuring food security and technological autonomy. The research demonstrates that external shocks served as catalysts for significant sector changes: accelerated digitalization, diversification of fertilizer and energy supply chains, and increased protest activity among agricultural business associations. The adaptation to new economic conditions incurred substantial costs: rising production expenses, social resistance from farmers, and persistent dependence on alternative markets. Analysis of the German experience reveals structural vulnerabilities within the agricultural sector under conditions of instability. The authors present development forecasts: a conservative scenario projecting continued geopolitical tensions, slowed ecological transition, and moderate support growth, leading to stagnation and maintained social tension; and a more probable moderate (baseline) scenario anticipating logistics stabilization, partial regulatory relief, and moderate investment growth that would balance environmental and economic objectives.