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编号 7 (128) (2024)
EUROPEAN PROCESS: COUNTRIES AND REGIONS
The Strategy of the Biden Administration Towards European NATO Allies
摘要
US relations with NATO allies are the key aspect of American foreign policy. At the present stage, the United States has a combined potential that exceeds the capabilities of other major international actors and the ability to project its influence in almost all regions of the world. The mechanism for shaping US foreign policy has been significantly affected by the contradictions caused by the activities of the D. Trump administration, which views on key foreign policy issues differed markedly from the position of most of the American political establishment. The concerns of US allies about the effectiveness of American security guarantees in these conditions have become a noticeable factor affecting relations within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, strengthening the sentiments of some European elites in favor of greater military and political autonomy. The victory of J. Biden was viewed as a return of American foreign policy to the traditional course, which presupposes the consolidation of NATO on the basis of key liberal principles and values. The purpose of this article is to study the key aspects of J. Biden administration’s attitude towards European allies. This problem seems to be significant from the point of view of understanding the logic of the international behavior of the collective West, as well as the specifics of the activities of key institutions that ensure its international political influence, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Based on the application of a systematic approach, the use of general scientific and special methods, including the historical and political science method, as well as methods of comparative and formal logical analysis, the article solves research problems related to the analysis of the main policy directions of J. Biden administration’s attitude towards European NATO allies. According to the results of the study, the strategy of the current US leadership in this direction is based mainly on the neoliberal ideological values. At the same time, it retains certain elements of continuity with D. Trump's policy, related to the US desire to redistribute costs within the bloc, shifting a significant part of the financial burden to the European members of NATO.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):5-16
5-16
Hungary: Two Presidencies of the Council of the EU
摘要
Comparing Hungary’s two presidencies in the Council of the EU in 2011 and 2024, the author comes to the conclusion that a number of priorities identified by Hungary during the first presidency for 13 years have not been properly resolved. This primarily concerns deepening ties with the Balkan states, connecting Bulgaria and Romania to the Schengen area, which was decided closer to her return to the position of chief strategist of the EU Council. Although the policy pursued by Hungary all these years in other statuses has demonstrated enviable consistency. In particular, the Danube Program has performed well over the years, and Croatia has joined the EU. Her experience in dealing with the crisis situation in Arab countries has helped her develop a clear and consistent position on migration and military conflicts in the intervening years. Despite the fact that the elections to the EU parliament were superimposed on the country’s second presidency, and then other EU leadership bodies, Budapest began its presidency quite loudly – seriously declaring its peacemaking intentions. Thus, among the priorities of the Hungarian presidency were strengthening the EU’s defense capability, increasing its competitiveness, the problem of illegal migration, agricultural policy and several other topics. Orban explained his trip to Ukraine, Russia, China, Turkey and the United States, which was not coordinated with the EU leadership, with the intention not to sit in the chair, but to act, trying to find solutions to the most acute problems that hinder the development of the European Union.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):17-29
17-29
Denmark in the EU Justice and Home Affairs and Defense Projects: Opportunities and Limitations
摘要
The European Union is a complex differentiated system, which includes permanent and temporary exceptions. The existence of permanent treaty-based exceptions for member states is usually linked to the Eurosceptic views of a significant part of the society. However, having achieved exemptions from the EU's common rules and projects, such states largely lose the opportunity to influence on decision-making in the future. With deepening integration and the growth of supranational legislation, the costs of having exceptions increase. The article considers the case of Denmark and its attempts to balance between having opt-outs and wanting to be opt-in in the areas of Justice and Home Affairs and defence. It is concluded that in order to minimize the damage caused by non-participation in these projects, Danish politicians have taken a pragmatic approach, adopting to varying degrees and forms the norms and practices of the European Union. However, in areas that are sensitive to public opinion and national sovereignty, such as migration, Denmark takes an independent line, joining only those projects that are in line with its policy.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):30-43
30-43
“Progressive realism”: between continuity and change of the UK foreign policy
摘要
The article explores the contours of the UK foreign policy of the Labour government of K. Starmer in the context of persistent strategic dilemmas. Through the use of the theory of change, the author’s analysis of the new Cabinet’s foreign policy focuses on its attempts to refurbish the ideology behind the international course, driven by the goals of change and the departure from the Tory legacy. At the same time, external stimuli (fragmentation and newly emerged centers), domestic political factors (the political legacy of the Brexiteers, inter-party consensus on key areas of foreign policy, public opinion), as well as previous foreign policy goals leave Labour little room for maneuver and a qualitative change of course. In foreign policy planning, the new government, on the one hand, draws upon the practical developments of its Tory opponents in the spirit of neoliberalism. On the other hand, it maneuvers between the realism and idealism of previous Labour governments. The novelty introduced by the Labour Cabinet has been “progressive realism”. Central to this approach is shifting of emphasis in relation to Europe and trade, economic and military-political rapprochement with Brussels, as well as strengthening ties with the countries of the Global South while dropping the Global Britain rhetoric. NATO-first as a basic parameter of foreign policy stays put and dictates the logic of relations with the main centers of power in the Washington-Brussels-Beijing triangle, which corresponds to the approach of previous Conservative governments. At the same time, London promotes itself as a responsible player, keen on distancing itself from postcolonial practices. The article looks in detail at the first steps of the incumbent Cabinet in the foreign policy arena in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific directions. London's attempts to build an image of a responsible player that distances itself from postcolonial practices and is guided by human rights and “moral leadership’, do not fundamentally change London’s foreign policy line. The uncompromising position on Ukraine against the backdrop of dependence on the “US factor” confirms the contradictory nature of the new concept, which may be adjusted with the arrival of a new White House administration.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):44-58
44-58
PARTIES AND POLITICAL MOVEMENTS
The Scandinavian “Left turn” in the European Parliament Elections 2024: the Finnish Case
摘要
The article explores the political processes of recent years in several Scan-dinavian countries. The author shows how, following the rise of the right-wing radical and nationalist movement and the weakening of centrist forces, left-wing political parties reemerged. The main focus is on the left segment of the political spectrum in Finland (and partly in Sweden). During the elections to the European Parliament the consolidated Left, for the first time after a long break, achieved impressive results. Using various sources and taking into consideration economic, social, political, ideo-logical context of the emerging Left the turn in Finnish life is considered. It is revealed how the new alignment of political forces in Finland has created a situation where the center-right parties are increasingly yielding to the pressure of nationalists, and the main factor in opposing the further shift to the Right of the entire Finnish state machine is the Left. It is also demonstrated that socio-political contradictions are growing as long as the economic situation worsens and the current authorities’ cuts budget allocations for social needs and introduces restrictive measures that directly affect the interests of significant masses of the working population. Although the previous block system, which allowed tactical cooperation has ceased, a new one has not yet been created.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):59-70
59-70
European elections with a German accent
摘要
The article analyzes the results of the elections to the European Parliament and their consequences for the future foreign policy of the EU towards Russia and Ukraine. The author considers the EU as one of the global centers of power, which position determines not only the development of the Ukrainian conflict, but also the future world order. From the point of view of Russian interests, it is very important to understand which party and political forces will influence decision-making in the European Union in the next five years. The author dwells in detail on the analysis of the alignment of political forces in the European Parliament after the 2024 elections, the role of right-wing parties, and their positions on the Ukrainian issue. It reveals the dilemma of the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and her basic principles in the choice of allies. Considerable attention is paid to the analysis of the EU's foreign policy strategy and an expert assessment of future relations with the United States. It considers ow the election of the US president on November 5, 2024 will affect the distribution of roles within the collective West, and what task, in this regard, the leader of the EU Germany sets for itself. The author studies the current papers of leading German think tanks, their forecasts, statements by the ruling elite of Germany, and representatives of the opposition. The article assesses the chances of the farright Alternative for Germany and the left-wing Sarah Wagenknecht Union to influence federal policy.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):71-84
71-84
Stepping Out of Step: the Contemporary Leftist Trend in Latin America
摘要
This article attempts to analyse the leftist trend in the social development of Latin America in the 21st century. At the beginning of the century, this trend took place due to a combination of political, social, and economic factors. The current "pink wave" can be explained by the dissatisfaction of the middle class with the existing system and traditional elites, who are unable to solve the most important problems of society. The study identifies a key characteristic of socialist movements: the pursuit of equality, which is understood broadly and includes aspects of wealth, gender, and ethnicity. The article explains the reasons for the reproduction of leftist political culture and compares progressive governments from different generations. It highlights key differences among them, including their driving forces, relationships with the United States, regional integration processes, and ideological positions. A significant part of the article analyses the political situation in Chile, Peru, Colombia, and Brazil. In each country, progressive governments don’t have control over legislative power, and implementing decisions requires agreements with the opposition. While leftist ideology remains an important direction in social thought, it is not a dominant trend among Latin Americans. Furthermore, it is highly likely that the next electoral cycle may strengthen the position of right-wing parties in the region.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):85-99
85-99
PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY
Inflation in the EU: Form, Causes and Anti-inflationary Policy
摘要
The article consists of two parts. The first part examines the theoretical issues of the nature of inflation, the mechanism and forms of its implementation. The author substantiates the idea that any inflation, regardless of which country and in which period it is realised, is always based on an increase in the cost of production and sale of goods. This growth may have different reasons: an increase in monetary demand, imports of more expensive goods, monopolistic regulation, etc. Depending on these reasons, separate forms of inflation should be distinguished. The second part is devoted to the analysis of the causes of modern inflation in the EU and the measures of the European Central Bank to prevent price increases. It shows that inflation in the regional association belongs to the category of imported, as it was caused by a huge increase in world energy prices, the supply of which to Western countries was limited by anti-Russian sanctions. As proof, the author cites Eurostat figures, which show that overall inflation in the euro area increased significantly following the rise in energy prices, and then began to decline as energy prices stabilised. Arguments are also presented that the ECB’s increased key rate, effective from autumn 2022 to June 2024, was not the main reason for the decrease in inflation in the euro area. In this regard, the author concludes that the Central Bank’s anti-inflationary measures were unnecessary, and at the same time hindered economic growth in the region.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):100-110
100-110
Instead of a Free Trade Zone: on the Work of the US-EU Trade and Technology Council
摘要
This article analyses the activities of the U.S.-European Trade and Technology Council (TTC), established in 2021. It identifies the prerequisites for its creation, driven by the desire of both parties to resolve a series of contradictions that have accumulated in transatlantic relations, as well as the ongoing strategic competition between the U.S. and the EU against China. The authors provide an analysis of the organisational structure, key areas of focus, and some outcomes of the council's work. They note that despite the active involvement of working groups within the TTC, its proposed solutions have limits in scope due to the specific nature of U.S.-European contradictions. These include conditions for the exchange of digital information between the U.S. and the EU, its secure storage, the creation of a common information space, and trade and investment regimes in the context of confrontation with Russia and China. An equally pressing issue relates to industrial policies in the U.S. and the EU, characterized by support for national production in high-tech sectors, which creates risks of a new “subsidy war”. In conclusion, the authors assess the prospects for the council's development and its potential influence on the future of transatlantic relations in trade and technological cooperation amid escalating global transformations, confrontation with the Russian Federation, and competition with China.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):111-123
111-123
Development of a National Emissions Trading System in Germany: Financial and Strategical Goals
摘要
The purpose of the article is to analyse the national emissions trading system in Germany, launched in 2021. The system is a development of the European Union's climate policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which led to the launch of European emissions trading system in the electricity sector, industry, maritime transport and aviation, and is aimed at changing trends consumption of hydrocarbon fuels in the housing and transport sectors. The housing sector is the most difficult to fundamentally transform within the framework of a low-carbon economic growth paradigm. By 2025, the carbon price will reach 55 euros per tonne CO2e. Revenues from the national emissions trading system in 2021–2024 are estimated at 40 billion euros. It is concluded that the introduction of the fee will lead to a decrease in the welfare of low-income groups of the population, especially in rural areas, but in the medium term will not have a significant impact on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The system is used to finance the renewables to reduce the German electricity sector's dependence on imported natural gas. The European Union is launching an emissions trading system similar to Germany's in 2027 (ETS-2), which for German consumers will further reduce the welfare of low-income groups.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):124-133
124-133
SECURITY ISSUES
Finland in NATO. Genesis of the Current Situation and Prospects for its Evolution
摘要
Finland's accession to NATO defines a new configuration of the Baltic-Scandinavian macroregion of the entire complex pertaining to regional security issues in Europe. The article examines the evolution of Finland's position on the issue of joining NATO, as part of the general issue of Russian-Finnish relations. The authors agree with the thesis previously expressed in the literature that the attempt to link Finland's accession to NATO and to quit the model of “Finnish Russian-friendly neutrality” at the beginning of the Special Military Operation is untenable, since this process was prepared long before 2022. In particular, Finland had the status of a NATO Enhanced Opportunities Partner. The article underlines that Russia has always been interested in the existence of an independent, prosperous and free Finland as a factor of regional stability. Finland's accession to NATO violates international treaties between the USSR/Russia and the Republic of Finland, for in-stance, the Treaty between the Russian Federation and Finland on the Basic Principles of Relations (1992). Moreover, Finland's membership in the Alliance puts an end to bilateral dialogue. Finland's accession to NATO is perceived in Russia with sincere regret, because it undermines the positive attitude towards the Finns and disrupts the positive image of the Finnish people, which has developed among Russians over the past decades.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):134-144
134-144
The Threat of the Far-Left and Anarchist Terrorism in the EU
摘要
The aim of the article is to determine the level of threat of far-left and anarchist terrorism in the EU with a special focus on two countries of the so-called “Mediterranean anarchist triangle” (Italy and Greece) and to identify trends in its further development. The article draws on primary and secondary sources to examine the threat of far-left and anarchist terrorism in different EU countries. We conclude that Euro-pol’s approach to studying the phenomena of far-left and anarchist terrorism is somewhat immature. The agency literally copies the rhetoric of the proclamations of the terrorist organizations under study, losing sight of their superficial perception of the ideology they use to justify their attacks. Nevertheless, Europol experts are much less politicized in their statements than the representatives of political circles. The far-left extremist “scene” in Italy is extremely small. In the early 2000s, it abandoned the use of terrorist methods. Anarchist extremists and terrorists pose a much greater threat in Italy. The dissolution of the “Revolutionary Organization 17 November” sharply reduced organized far-left and anarchist violence in Greece, but did not stop it completely. In December 2008, a new phase of “violent activism” against the state and private property began in this country. Numerous groups and organizations emerged that carried out major terrorist attacks. The vast majority of attacks organized by far-left and anarchist terrorists are directed against material assets, however, the choice of means of attack indicates the danger to human life and health.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):145-157
145-157
Military-Political Aspects of Turkey’s Foreign Policy in South-East Europe
摘要
Over the past two years, Turkey has been significantly active in South-East Europe in the field of arms exports, as well as in military-diplomatic and military-technical contacts. These developments require a more careful study of the identified aspects and the degree of their influence on the regional juncture. The issue might be explored in several ways. It can provide additional understanding of the nature of relations between Turkey and NATO, as well as about intra-bloc interactions on the whole. It can be noted that the active development of bilateral ties is balanced by a certain weakening of the Turkish presence through stabilization missions in Bosnia and Kosovo, where the positions of European members of NATO are strengthening. At the same time, Ankara has found an opportunity to develop new multilateral formats, such as the trilateral Mine Countermeasures (MCM) Black Sea task force established in January 2024. Aspects of Turkish military build-up should also be taken into account. It can be assumed that Ankara is interested in stabilizing relations with European actors in the medium term in order to preserve common military-technical formats, which is required to complete the modernization of the Turkish army. To sum up, the examples provided in the article clearly illustrate how the concept of “Turkish strategic autonomy” and “risk hedging” is implemented at a practical level.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):158-169
158-169
EDUCATIONAL SPACE
The Importance of European Languages for Russian Scientific Contacts with the Global South
摘要
In recent years, Russia has been rapidly turning towards the East and the global South as a whole. First of all, the country's changed foreign policy priorities and shifts in the geography of its foreign trade attract attention, but there is also an intensification of Russian scientific ties with a number of developing countries. At the same time, there are many difficulties with the development of scientific contacts with the countries of the Global South, and the essential issue is to develop the right strategy to minimize existing language barriers. The article shows the growing, but still limited role of the English language in scientific activity. It is demonstrated that states with a fairly large population and a developed R&D sector sometimes do not take minimal steps themselves to preserve any significant role of the national language in scientific activity, which is especially important to understand in contemporary Russia. At the same time, the languages of the former European metropolises, not only English, but also French, Spanish and Portuguese, play an important role in the scientific life of many countries of the Global South. In this regard, the successful positioning of Russian research organizations and their achievements requires a combination of the use of “main” European languages in scientific contacts with partners in the Global South with a gradual expansion of the number of Russian specialists with knowledge of Oriental languages. A separate task, and one that allows to find new solutions in the digital age, is to promote the Russian-language segment of publications abroad. Among other things, this area of application of “soft power” can be carried out through the preparation of thematic English-language bibliographies.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):170-181
170-181
SOCIAL SPHERE
Factors of the EU Social Model’s Erosion
摘要
This article explores the factors contributing to the erosion of the EU social model and the underlying causes of the inefficacy of the Union's social policy. As the EU has to redefine its social priorities, the study analyses recent European Commission initiatives and proposals through the lens of sustainability and the evolution of the EU social model. The research is rooted in the concept of socio-economic models in Europe and employs a critical analysis of socio-political approaches to evaluate the Union's social efforts. Key supranational factors driving the erosion of the EU social model are identified, including the atomisation of the EU's social strategy, the compounded impact of successive crises, and the implications of the Ukrainian crisis. Special attention is given to the priorities of the current European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, and their influence on fostering a unified social policy approach among member states. The analysis also considers national factors, such as the diminishing effectiveness of national and regional social models due to integration pressures and adaptation to the post-industrial economy. Additionally, discrepancies between the attributes of these models and actual citizen well-being, as well as transnational social challenges, are highlighted. Two overarching trends in the social policies of the EU and its member states are examined: the increasing precarity of modern work and lifestyles, and the evolving role and significance of the family, which has driven the expansion of child-centered social policies. The article concludes that a misalignment between the EU's social policy priorities and the practical possibilities of unification fosters citizen dissatisfaction. Furthermore, the interplay between crisis dynamics and the emphasis on green and digital transitions will likely result in a dual approach: promoting austerity to sustain economic competitiveness while supporting the most vulnerable groups and sectors linked to green and digital technologies. Given that social policy is a cornerstone of the EU’s image among its citizens and external stakeholders, the erosion of the European social model risks undermining the Union's reputation as a guarantor of high social standards and resident well-being.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):182-195
182-195
Integration of Third-Country Nationals into the Electoral System of European States
摘要
The article focuses on the analysis of the inclusion of third-country nationals in the electoral systems of European states from the perspective of immigrant integration policies. Until recently, participation in the electoral process was a stable attribute of national citizenship and was not extended to foreigners, and the only option for their inclusion in the political community remained naturalization. The situation began to change in the second half of the 20th century, when a number of European countries expanded the possibility of institutional participation, first to citizens from other states within the European Union and then to third-country nationals. At the same time, in European political discourse, the rationality of giving voting rights to the latter continues to be a debated and politicised issue, owing to social fears related to the cultural and religious affiliation of immigrants. The aim of the study is to assess the degree of electoral inclusion in European states. To achieve this goal, a theoretical and methodo-logical apparatus has been formulated based on theories of immigrant integration and political participation, concepts of post-nationalism, post-migration, and citizenship, as well as works devoted to the electoral participation of foreigners and their inclusion in the electoral systems of recipient societies. The regulatory and institutional conditions for access of third-country nationals to the electoral systems of EU countries were examined, and types of electoral inclusion were identified. The main conclusion of the work is that, at the same time as the possibilities of electoral participation of third-country nationals are increased, the European States are establishing additional mechanisms of implicit exclusion, which, in the context of xenophobia, discrimination, and insufficient knowledge of the language of the country of residence, adversely affect their electoral activity.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):196-207
196-207
Transformation of Migration Policy of the Republic of Ireland
摘要
In 2023, Dublin experienced massive anti-immigrant riots amid a growing number of asylum seekers in the Republic of Ireland. These events clearly demonstrated that government was gradually losing control of the situation and was unable to fully ensure the resettlement and effective integration of migrants into the host community. The Republic of Ireland planned to maintain the competitiveness of its national economy by attracting highly skilled workers from new EU member states. For this purpose, migration legislation was revised, relaxing the rules for entry into the country. However, in the 2010s, the migration trend changed – the number of foreign nationals from developing countries, which constituted the market for cheap, low-skilled labor, increased sharply in Ireland. At the same time, the influx of refugees increased after the “Arab Spring” and the beginning of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine. Migration waves put additional pressure on the state budget, public services, urban infrastruc-ture and social stability. In 2024, the Republic of Ireland joined the EU pact to jointly solve the common problem of European countries. The article examines the transformation of the state migration policy in its close relationship with the UK and the EU, as well as the dynamics of migration trends in the Republic of Ireland in the 21st century.
Contemporary Europe. 2024;(7 (128)):208-219
208-219