The Role and Place of Germany in the EU's Anti-Russian Sanctions Policy: Evolution, Consequences and Scenarios

The article deals with the evolution and strategic drivers of Germany’s sanctions policy toward Russia in 2014-2025, with a focus on institutional and economic dimensions. The aim is to identify the specific features of Germany’s participation in EU sanctions regimes and the implications for the country’s national industrial/economic base (Standort). Four stages of the sanctions regime are specified: from the restrictive measures of 2014 to the multi-level architecture of EU and national law in 2022-2025. Particular attention is paid to the role of the German authorities as initiators of key sanctions, their impact on Germany’s political-economic landscape, and the transformation of the German industrial model. It is argued that restrictive measures served not only as an instrument of foreign-policy pressure, but also as a driver of the energy pivot and of defense-industrial modernization and retooling. At the same time, adverse effects are identified, including rising costs, the risk of deindustrialization, and increased dependence on the US. The article concludes with a scenario-based forecast for 2026-2027 that takes into account the institutional inertia of the sanctions regime and the need for adaptive measures to preserve the competitiveness of Germany’s Standort.