Possibility of quantitative determination of dynamic parameters of landslide processes for thermoabrasion shores in cryolithozone based on morphological pattern analysis by single space imagery

The purpose of this study is to investigate the possibility of quantifying the dynamic parameters of landslide processes of abrasion shores in the cryolithozone by analyzing the morphological pattern of these shores taken from a single space survey. The empirical study was carried out at six key sites within the Kanin Nose, Gydan, and Yamal peninsulas. As follows from the analysis, the probability distribution of the thermocircus sizes observed at each moment differs from that of young thermocircuses (and, respectively, landslides) formed due to the erasure of a part of a thermocircus or its complete erasure in the process of the coastal development. The results of the mathematical modeling show that in the case of an abrasion slope with relatively homogeneous geological and geocryological characteristics, a dynamic balance is achieved, which is manifested in the stabilization of the average size of thermocircuses and stabilization of the probability distribution of their sizes along the slope extension. The analysis of empirical data at the studied key sites showed that the observed trends in the average size of the thermocircuses correspond to the conclusion about the existence of the dynamic balance in the development of the coastal morphologic pattern. The study’s main result is the analytical dependence, which gives a principal possibility to determine the probability distribution of the sizes of young landslides based on the morphological pattern of abrasion shores observed from the single space survey without stationary observations. The morphological pattern of abrasion shores does not determine the generation density of forming landslides. The result of the study can be used in forecasting shoreline retreat and predicting landslide processes on abrasion shores of the cryolithozone.