Analytical Methods for Forecasting Development in the Electric Power Industry

Resumo

The article considers a methodical approach to analysis and tools for narrowing the scope of forecasting, formed from a variety of environmental scenarios, requirements for the development of the power industry, and rational ways to satisfy them. It is based on an assessment of the probability of implementing anticipated projects and their riskiness for potential investors. By an example of the power plant capacity projections, the effect of acceptable risk on the limits of forecasting is shown.