Study of Weather and Climate Predictability at Seasonal Time Scales with Climate Model of INM RAS

Prediction system of seasonal weather and climate anomalies is developed on the basis of INM RAS climate model. The model includes block of atmospheric dynamics with surface and soil model, block of ocean and sea ice dynamics, and aerosol block. Initial states were generated as anomalies of atmospheric, oceanic and ice states derived from reanalysis added to model climatology. Simulation of weather anomalies in December–February and June–August, 1980–2014 was considered. It is shown that model is capable to reproduce anomalies of winter and summer seasons, including anomalies associated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA). The quality of seasonal forecasts with developed prediction system is close to the quality of other present day seasonal prediction systems. Operative simulations of weather anomalies in June–August, 2022, are considered. It is possible to use successfully the prediction system in operative regime.