Quantitative microbial risk assessment for drinking water-associated population

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Abstract

The risk assessment method is used to study the probability of adverse public health outcomes when using contaminated drinking water, with acute intestinal infections representing a predominant concern. A quantitative microbial risk assessment is a mathematical system designed to calculate the probability of the development of the infectious diseases caused by the pathogenic microorganisms present in drinking water. The microbial risk assessment method integrates epidemiological and sanitary-hygienic monitoring data to calculate the risk of water-associated diseases. This method aims to identify and mitigate the risk of the waterborne outbreaks of infectious diseases and reducing the prevalence sporadic (background) infections caused by water-transmitted pathogens. As a result of the aforementioned method and the availability of online calculators, researchers now can utilize a tool for calculating the probability and risk of occurrence of infectious diseases when using low microbial quality drinking water. This review presents the stages of the microbial risk quantitative assessment with a description of the calculation methods, describes the sources of the data necessary to assess the risk, presents the formulas for calculating the probability depending on the type of infectious pathogen, and provides the links to online calculators allowing for quick calculations.

About the authors

Elena V. Baydakova

Federal Agency of Consumer Protection; Northern State Medical University

Author for correspondence.
Email: elenabaydakova@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1570-6589
SPIN-code: 3398-3669
Russian Federation, Arkhangelsk; Arkhangelsk

Tatiana N. Unguryanu

Northern State Medical University

Email: unguryanu_tn@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8936-7324
SPIN-code: 7358-1674

MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor

Russian Federation, Arkhangelsk

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4. Fig. 3. An example of a dose calculation, probability of occurrence and risk coefficient using the online calculator “Quantitative microbiological risk assessment”.

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