Mathematical Assessment of the Impact of the Level of State Support on the Development of the Agro-Industrial Complex
- Authors: Kasatkina E.V.1,2, Vavilova D.D.1
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Affiliations:
- Kalashnikov Izhevsk State Technical University
- Autonomous non-profit organization “Digital Economy of the Udmurt Republic”
- Issue: No 1(64) (2025)
- Pages: 6-19
- Section: REGIONAL AND SECTORAL ECONOMICS
- URL: https://journal-vniispk.ru/2306-2800/article/view/303792
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.25686/2306-2800.2025.1.6
- EDN: https://elibrary.ru/RZZOVY
- ID: 303792
Cite item
Full Text
Abstract
Introduction. Food security of the country is guaranteed by the effective functioning of enterprises of the agro-industrial complex (AIC). State support plays an important role in ensuring the stable operation of agro-industrial enterprises. Direct assessment of the degree of this influence on the development of AIC is an urgent task. Therefore, the article proposes and implements an approach to mathematically justified assessment of the impact of the level of state support on AIC development in the region. The purpose of the research is to develop mathematical models of the dependence of the AIC development indicators on the volume of state support using the example of statistical data of one of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation – namely, the Udmurt Republic. Methodology. The methods of correlation analysis, mathematical modeling and time series forecasting were used in the research. The work assesses the correlation between the volume of state support and the AIC key indicators, and also proposes regression models for analyzing and forecasting the indicators of AIC development depending on the level of state support. To account for state financial investments in AIC in prior periods, their accumulated value is used. Results. The results of the correlation analysis and mathematical modeling show that the accumulated amount of state support has a significant impact on the key indicators of AIC development including those of gross milk production, volume of agricultural output, livestock production and the level of wages of workers in this industry. The proposed mathematical models are quite accurate and allow forecasting the dynamics of AIC indicators taking into account various levels of state support, as well as building different scenarios of AIC development in the region. Three scenarios for the development of the dynamics of the key indicators of AIC development in the Udmurt Republic until 2030 have been built. Conclusion. A sharp decrease in state support to AIC and maintaining it at the 2022 level of 1.2 billion rubles or its reduction to 305 million rubles will negatively affect the forecasted dynamics of all indicators of AIC development in the Udmurt Republic. Only an increase in the volume of state support to the level of 3.4 billion rubles per year will lead to sustainable growth of all AIC indicators.
About the authors
E. V. Kasatkina
Kalashnikov Izhevsk State Technical University; Autonomous non-profit organization “Digital Economy of the Udmurt Republic”
Author for correspondence.
Email: e.v.trushkova@gmail.com
Russian Federation, 7, Studencheskaya St., Izhevsk, 426069; 21, Lenina St., Izhevsk, 426004
D. D. Vavilova
Kalashnikov Izhevsk State Technical University
Email: e.v.trushkova@gmail.com
Russian Federation, 7, Studencheskaya St., Izhevsk, 426069
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