Email this article Methods for Analyzing the Impact of Transformational Processes on the Right to Develop the Socioeconomic System in the Context of Digitalization: Scenario Approach (Problem Statement)
- Authors: Shults V.L.1, Kulba V.V.2, Shelkov A.B.2, Chernov I.V.2, Timoshenko A.A.3
-
Affiliations:
- Center for the Study of Security Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences
- Institute of Management Problems named after V.A. Trapeznikova of the Russian Academy of Sciences
- University of the Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation
- Issue: Vol 8, No 1 (2021)
- Pages: 19-36
- Section: Trending topic
- URL: https://journal-vniispk.ru/2410-7522/article/view/65146
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.17816/RJLS65146
- ID: 65146
Cite item
Open Access
Access granted
Subscription Access
Abstract
The article discusses methodological problems behind increasing the efficient transformation of law in a developed information society and assessing their impact on the processes of socioeconomic development of the state and society. Methods and technologies of analysis and management of the development of complex socioeconomic systems are considered. To solve methodological and practical problems of increasing the efficiency of legislative regulation in the context of digitalization, it is proposed to use the scenario analysis methodology, which provides an opportunity for intellectual support and assessment of the quality of preparation and implementation of decisions in the field of legislative activity. The approach proposed for solving the problems under consideration is based on advanced scenario analysis and modeling of the development processes of situations in the political-legal, sociopolitical, socioeconomind innovation-technological spheres. This will allow us to work out alternative options for the development of the law enforcement situation, for which, in general, information is incomplete and there is a high level of uncertainty in its development. The authors have formulated promising directions for future theoretical and applied research within the framework of the development of the methodology of scenario analysis of social and economic reality, as regulated by the rules of law.
Keywords
Full Text
##article.viewOnOriginalSite##About the authors
Vladimir L. Shults
Center for the Study of Security Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: lbogat@mail.ru
doctor of philosophy, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, honored scientist of the Russian Federation, Laureate of the Prize of the Government of the Russian Federation in Education, scientific director
Russian Federation, MoscowVladimir V. Kulba
Institute of Management Problems named after V.A. Trapeznikova of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: lbogat@mail.ru
doctor of technical sciences, professor, honored scientist of the Russian Federation, chief researcher
Russian Federation, MoscowAleksey B. Shelkov
Institute of Management Problems named after V.A. Trapeznikova of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: lbogat@mail.ru
PhD, leading researcher
Russian Federation, MoscowIgor V. Chernov
Institute of Management Problems named after V.A. Trapeznikova of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: lbogat@mail.ru
candidate of technical sciences, head of the laboratory
Russian Federation, MoscowAndrey A. Timoshenko
University of the Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation
Author for correspondence.
Email: lbogat@mail.ru
PhD in law, associate professor, professor
Russian Federation, MoscowReferences
- Shultz VL, Bochkarev SA, Kulba VV and others. Analysis of the problems of transformation of systems of legislative regulation and law enforcement in the context of digitalization and methods for assessing the effectiveness of decisions taken // National Security / nota bene. 2019;(4):19–74. (In Russ.)
- Models and methods of analysis and synthesis of scenarios for the development of socio-economic systems: in 2 books. / Ed. VL Shultz and VV Kulby. Moscow: Nauka, 2012. Book 1. 304 p., Book 2. 358 p. (In Russ.)
- Forrester J. World dynamics. Moscow: Science, 1978. 167 p. (In Russ.)
- Meadows DH, Meadows DL, Randers J, Behrens VV. Growth limits. Moscow: Publishing house of Moscow State University, 1991. 208 p. (In Russ.)
- Kahn H. On escalation: Metaphors and scenarios. New York: Praeger, 1965. 308 p.
- Kahn H, Wiener A. The year 2000: A framework for speculations on the next 33-year. New York: Macmillan. 1967. 431 p.
- Ackoff R. The art of problem solving. Moscow: Mir, 1982. 230 p. (In Russ.)
- Ansoff I. Strategic management. Moscow: Economics, 1989. 519 p. (In Russ.)
- Danilov-Danilyan VI, Ryvkin AA. Forecasting and planning. System research: Yearbook. Moscow: Science, 1981. P. 39–59. (In Russ.)
- Lisichkin VA. Theory and Practice of Forecasting: Methodological Aspects. Moscow: Science, 1972. 224 p. (In Russ.)
- Minsky M. Frames for knowledge representation. Moscow: Energy, 1979. 151 p. (In Russ.)
- Lindgren M, Bandhold H. Scenario planning: the connection between the future and strategy. Moscow: ZAO Olimp – Business, 2009. 256 p. (In Russ.)
- Shultz VL, Bochkarev SA, Kulba VV et al. Scenario research of problems of ensuring public safety in the context of digitalization. Moscow: Prospect, 2020. 240 p. (In Russ.)
- Shultz VL, Bochkarev SA, Kulba VV et al. Scenario analysis of the problems of transformation of the law enforcement system in the context of digitalization. Security Issues. 2019;(4):36–65. (In Russ.)
- Shultz VL. Scenario analysis in social security management. National Security / nota bene. 2012;(6):2–21. (In Russ.)
- Shultz VL, Kulba VV, Shelkov AB and others. Scenario analysis in the management of geopolitical information confrontation. Moscow: Science, 2015. 542 p. (In Russ.)
- Shultz VL, Kulba VV, Shelkov AB et al. Using the scenario approach in anti-corruption management processes (on the example of the construction industry). Russian Journal of Legal Research. 2020;7(1):64–77. (In Russ.)
- Shultz VL, Kulba VV, Shelkov AB. and other. Regional security management based on the scenario approach. Moscow: IPU RAN, 2014. 162 p. (In Russ.)
- Shultz VL, Kulba VV, Shelkov AB and other. Technogenic safety management based on scenario and indicator approaches. Moscow: IPU RAN, 2013. 116 p. (In Russ.)
- Bochkarev SA. On combating corruption in the Russian Federation: new approaches without innovation. Law and Politics. 2008;(11):2591–2594. (In Russ.)
- Bochkarev SA. Property as a protected benefit of criminal law. Law and Politics. 2009;(5):952–957. (In Russ.)
- Bochkarev SA. On the nature of social danger of crime. Business in the law. 2009;(5):155–159. (In Russ.)
- Guseinov AA, Stepin VS, Smirnov AV et al. Ways of development of philosophy of law in Russia. Russian Journal of Legal Research. 2017;1(10):9–46. (In Russ.)
- Timoshenko AA. Internal factors of transformation of the judicial and law enforcement system. Gaps in Russian legislation. 2019;(5):172–176. (In Russ.)
- Timoshenko AA. External factors of the transformation of the judicial and law enforcement system and scenario analysis of judicial reform. Bulletin of the Voronezh State University. Series: Right. 2019;(4):274–383. (In Russ.)
Supplementary files
