Vol 52, No 1 (2024)

Relevance. Foreign trade activity is the most important factor of economic growth of the Russian Fe-deration, but currently exports and imports are under restrictions from Western countries. This study will provide information on potential scenarios for development of Russian foreign trade activity using ARMA and ARIMA modelling in modern conditions.

Aim. To analyze the foreign trade activity of the Russian Federation in the conditions of restrictive measures prohibiting access to international and financial markets; to develop va-rious scenarios of development of Russian foreign trade activity in the conditions of sanctions restrictions.

Methods. Methods of analysis, synthesis and comparison, as well as ARMA- and ARIMA-forecasting of time series.

Results. Based on the analysis of foreign trade activity of the Russian Federation for 2022, it was revealed that trade flows and the structure of foreign economic activity have undergone significant changes, thanks to which Russia managed to minimize the consequences of the imposed sanctions restrictions. The constructed models made it possible to develop three types of export and import development scenarios – inertial, pessimistic and optimistic. But in 2025 there will be a decrease in exports by 3.5% to $610 billion.

Analysis of these models showed that, within the framework of the inertial scenario, in 2023 and 2024 there will be a noticable increase in exports by 3 and 2%, respectively. In 2025 there will be a decrease in exports by 3.5% to $610 billion. Within the framework of the inertial scenario, the following values were obtained for the import indicator: in 2023, growth will be 4%, in 2024, an increase in imports by 2% is possible, and in 2025, based on the obtained model, growth will stop. 

Relevance. Transport is considered as one of the factors that shapes public welfare. But in society there are conflicting demands, expectations and assessments of transport solutions depending on the age, gender and place of residence of passengers. The existence of a gap is determined by the objective density and saturation of modern urban agglomerations. In addition, the age and gender composition of movement participants is changing, which forms their needs and requests for the organization of infrastructure.

Aim. To identify the reasons for differences and gaps in city actors’ assessments of transport decisions, and the consequences of such gaps.

Methods. The work uses the results of a comprehensive interdisciplinary research project, which made it possible to describe the transport behavior of the main participants in passenger transport. The authors used the results of hybrid methods of information search: video recordings of passenger and transport flows of the city of Kemerovo and the Kemerovo region, a questionnaire survey, content analysis of social networks, official pages, websites and portals.

Results. There are different user attitudes aimed at updating the problem of reforming the transport system, options and prospects for its solution and the image of reactive interaction between users and the authorities (for example, criticism of government decisions, demonstration of distrust or dissatisfaction, use of communication about transport reform to achieve other goals).

Conclusions. An active tool for qualitative study of new transport changes can be the use of digital solutions, which allows one to collect quick, reactive parameters relating to urban transport communications in the resource space of networked and «cloud» urban communities.

Relevance. In order to alleviate the problems of labour reduction and heavy financial burden caused by population aging, some developed countries have implemented policy reforms to develop the resources of the elderly, and provided educational measures to improve digital literacy for the elderly in combination with the fact of digital transformation. These positive measures have not only achieved certain results, but also provided a reference for China to deal with aging.

Aim. To summarise the measures and experiences in developing geriatric resources in typical developed countries, and to gain insights from them, and then to make suggestions for China’s response to population ageing.

Methods. Based on the collection and collation of objective facts and statistical data, this paper summarises the current situation of aging in Japan, Germany and Singapore and the reform measures for the development of human resources for the elderly, and uses induction to analyse the internal logic of the successful experience of these countries in developing human resources for the elderly.

Results. The author has summarized and analyzed the measures and experience of Japan, Germany and Singapore in developing geriatric resources in the dual context of ageing and digitalisation as well as logic of the positive results of developing geriatric resources. Combined with the current situation of the development of human resources for the elderly in China, some suggestions are put forward for the development of human resources for the elderly in China.

Conclusions. The establishment of a sustainable pension system, the formulation of policies to promote the employment of the elderly, and the provision of a service system for the elderly, such as old-age security, education and training, are the necessary prerequisites for the development of the elderly's human resources. The construction of a digitally inclusive social environment of positive aging, and the enhancement of the elderly's digital literacy through a variety of ways have better benefits for the elderly's confidence in the labour supply and the increase in the rate of labour force participation. Constructing a synergistic mechanism based on stakeholders such as the government, enterprises, families as well as the elderly stimulates the elderly labour supply and other social activities.

At the moment, youth policy is becoming one of the main priorities for the development of the state and society, it takes a special place in the economic growth of the country, and attention is given to it in the environment of higher education. At the same time, the problem of the demand for the potential influence of youth policy on the development of an educational organization of higher education, as well as the difficulties that arise in implementation of youth policy in a university development program, remains insufficiently studied.

Methods. Expert questioning, factor analysis and analysis of cause-and-effect relationships, general statistical analysis and analysis of regulatory documents, construction of matrices and graphs. The information base consisted of a survey of 145 vice-rectors of Russian universities from 52 regions of the Russian Federation, conducted from October to December 2023, which examined practical approaches to the implementation of youth policy.

Aim. To study the degree and nature of youth policy influence on the main directions of the university activities, which, in its turn, will make it possible to specify its role in achieving the strategic goals of the university.

Result. The role of youth in the strategic and economic development of the university is analyzed, the most significant factors are highlighted, and the influence of the main directions of youth policy on increasing the university recognition, economic efficiency and strategic planning was shown.

Conclusions. The paper contains the data on specifics and significance of youth policy, promising directions for studying the mechanisms of its implementation, including for effective integration into university development programs.

Relevance. The banking system is a key structure in a market economy. The definition of a «banking system» affects all aspects of its functioning: organizational, legal, and institutional. The banking system can function effectively only if a number of principles are fulfilled that justify the organization of effective monetary circulation that meets the needs of the economy and its expanded reproduction. The national banking system exists in the economic environment of the State in which it operates. Therefore, the study of the banking system of the Russian Federation involves considering it not separately, but together with a set of factors influencing it.

Aim. To substantiate the factors of developing the banking system in the Russian Federation through segmentation at the level of the macroenvironment (external indirect impact) and microenvironment (internal direct impact).

Methods. General scientific methods of cognition, including comparativism, segmentation, generalization, synthesis, detailing.

Tasks. In order to achieve this aim, the segmentation of the factors for developing the banking system in the Russian Federation was carried out, indicating the specifics of the impact. The authors have considered the eterministic analysis models that can be applied to quantify the degree of impact.

Results. The factors influencing the banking system can be conditionally divided into internal and external ones. Internal factors have a direct impact on the banking sector development, external factors may indirectly influence it, but this in no way reduces the degree of possible impact. The factors were grouped according to the following criteria: economic, social, man-made, managerial, professional, political, and competitive. It is quite difficult to assess the influence of one or another factor, first of all, for the reason that all the analyzed indicators must be expressed quantitatively. There is also a question about the degree of influence of one or another factor, which should be expressed in terms of coefficients, that is, in any case, there may be a subjectivity of assessment in the calculation, which makes the calculations ambiguous and possibly erroneous. It is advisable to assess the impact of the studied factors using deterministic factor models that will generate a model for the banking system development and formulate strategies for the development of the banking sector and the country economy.

Conclusions. The necessity of structuring the factors of banking system development was justified in order to further evaluate them through a deterministic factor analysis in order to bring the results obtained to numerical values.

Relevance. Development of digital ecosystems has accelerated significantly over the past three to five years, driven by global economic, social, and technological changes. Digital platforms took the lead in sales and capitalization in areas such as advertising, entertainment, trade, communications, information technology and significantly changed the financial and tourism sectors. However, the scientific literature lacks an economic analysis of the leading digital ecosystems, presenting only a description of their business models, which does not fully allows noting the key peaks of economic activity and compare the level of success.

Aim. To review theoretical approaches to the management of digital ecosystems and conduct a comparative analysis of owners of leading digital ecosystems on affordable economic indicators.

Methods. Methodological basis of the study is the concept of economic ecosystems and management theory. We use in the article the methods of structural-logical and comparative analysis. We analyze the Fortune 500 and Interbrand databases.

Results. We considered scientific publications on the theme of digital ecosystems management with allocation of levels and objects, underling the owner role, and provides analysis of the main economic indicators of the world leading digital ecosystems in b2c and b2b-segments. Our results allowed identifying the leaders on several indicators, including the brand value. The assessment across several parameters identified Apple as a business model demonstrating better results in the digital ecosystem category. With comparable sales, Amazon, Google, Alibaba, and Meta products lag in both capitalization and brand value. B2b ecosystems are less profitable than b2c, but tend to grow more steadily. We examined the need for a deeper assessment of each digital ecosystem at the level of its owner, platform, and participants.

The article provides a socio-philosophical analysis of the Orthodox religious community as a traditional society in modern conditions. At present, Russian society is a complex structured system represented by various groups of traditional, religious, industrial and post-industrial culture. Religious structures of the Russian Orthodox Church, represented legally most often as Local Religious Organization Orthodox Parish of the Russian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate), are quite widespread. The aim of the study was to analyze and comprehend the functions of the structural components of this society laid down in its Charter. In the study of the social system of the parish community the structural-functional approach of R. Merton and Jungian understanding of archetype as a behavioral model are applied. The following structural actors of the parish community are identified: church, clergy, parishioners, Sunday school, almshouse, brotherhood, cemetery, parish hospital and similar parish organizations. Each structural element of the parish is characterized by its own functionality. The described functions of the structural components of the society under study are grouped according to the main criteria that reflect the goals and objectives of the existence of this society, such as moral and ethical, religious and attitudinal, cultural and educational, socio-political and system-forming. The analysis of the main models of behavior of parish actors revealed some contradictions in the structural relations of the community, which will allow further study of this phenomenon to determine the ways of its development and transformation. The growing interest in religious communities with their inherent deep historical and social prerequisites has been noted. The format of the modern Orthodox community is unattractive, as it has shortcomings in the management structure, leading to the formalization of various spheres of activity. The consequence is the transformation of religious functions and the absence of horizontal social ties.

The article reveals the content of one of the components of knowledge management – knowledge ge-neration in an organization. An attempt is being made to identify the mechanism of this generation and to reveal the potential for its effectiveness. It is shown that knowledge for an organization has the status of a special resource: it has its own dynamics of emergence and requires specific management actions. The experience of Japanese companies is used in applying a four-phase spiral model of new knowledge formation in an organization, when knowledge is translated into real technologies and products. Creating new knowledge literally means “reshaping the company and each of its employee in a continuous process of personal and organizational self-renewal”. The study presents the “ba” platform, which is interpreted as a system in which knowledge is activated as a creative resource and as a context in which interaction between explicit and tacit knowledge develops in a spiral. A SECI model is proposed. It describes such methods of knowledge transformation. By addressing organized processes such as knowledge creation and exchange, the mechanisms that ensure the transfer of knowledge in organizations are analyzed. It is concluded that knowledge transfer is a kind of key to a rare opportunity to understand what the prerequisites for a company competitive advantages are. A mechanism for resol-ving this paradoxical situation can only be formed by managers representing the creative class.