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Volume 61, Nº 3 (2025)

Articles

Modeling of climate, atmospheric and ocean dynamics: To the 100th anniversary of academician G.I. Marchuk

Dymnikov V., Zalesny V.

Resumo

Introductory paper on the issue of the journal Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, No. 3, 2025, dedicated to the 100th anniversary of Academician G.I. Marchuk. The main directions of scientific activity of G.I. Marchuk, which had a significant impact on the development of modern geophysical fluid dynamics, are described. These are weather forecasting; modeling of the climate system; application of the theory of adjoint equations to geophysical fluid dynamics problems; computational algorithms. The ideas and mathematical methods of modern geophysical fluid dynamics initiated by G.I. Marchuk and developed by his scientific school over the course of 25 years of the XX and 25 years of the XXI century are discussed. The bright deep mark that he left in science is noted, and the results obtained by him, his disciples and colleagues in the field of geophysical fluid dynamics are highlighted.

Izvestiâ Akademii nauk SSSR. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. 2025;61(3):275-291
pages 275-291 views

Development of the Earth’s Climate System Model of the IVM RAS

Volodin E., Gritsun A., Bragina V., Tarasevich M., Chernenkov A.

Resumo

The history of Earth climate system model development is considered from studies of G.I. Marchuk to present state. A number of climate processes considered in the model is shown. Simulation of present climate and climate changes by actual model version is presented shortly.

Izvestiâ Akademii nauk SSSR. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. 2025;61(3):292-304
pages 292-304 views

The model of oceanic and marine circulation INMOM: from origins to the present day

Gusev A., Diansky N., Fomin V., Volodin E., Zalesny V.

Resumo

The history is described of the Russian sigma-model of oceanic and marine circulation known as INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model). The model was developed for 50 years initially at KCC SB АS USSR, then at INM RAS. The first version of the model was developed under immediate supervision of G.I. Marchuk and was designed for modelling of coupled circulation of global atmosphere and World Ocean. The main method for solving model equations was the multicomponent splitting technique proposed by G.I. Marchuk and evolved by his students and followers. For a half of century, the model’s representation of basic processes, parameterizations and numerical algorithms were improved. The novel period in the model development proceeded in the late 90’s, when it started to be used as the oceanic component of the INM RAS Earth system model. In 2000’s, the range of its application extended essentially. Together with studying Earth climate system, it started to be implemented for simulating circulation of the World Ocean, as well as its separate basins and seas. Currently, the model INMOM is being applied for solving a wide range of fundamental and applied problems concerned with reproducing characteristics of marine and oceanic hydrothermodynamics including their climatic variability. It is used at INM RAS, SOI, IO RAS, Hydrometcenter of Russia, POI FEB RAS and more organizations dealing with study of oceanic and marine hydrothermodynamics. The model is continuing to be evolved by its authors, their colleagues and followers.

Izvestiâ Akademii nauk SSSR. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. 2025;61(3):305-323
pages 305-323 views

Adjoint Equations and Methods of Variational Data Assimilation in Problems of Geophysical Hydrodynamics

Agoshkov V., Zalesny V., Shutyaev V., Parmuzin E., Zakharova N.

Resumo

The current state of research in the field of adjoint equations and variational assimilation of observational data for the ocean dynamics model developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences is presented. The developed technology of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) is based on the method of multicomponent splitting of the mathematical model of ocean dynamics and minimization of the cost functional associated with observational data by solving an optimality system including adjoint equations and covariance matrices of observational errors and the background errors. Efficient algorithms for solving variational data assimilation problems based on modern iterative processes with a special choice of iterative parameters, as well as algorithms for studying the sensitivity of model characteristics to observational data errors are proposed. The methodology is illustrated for the Black Sea hydrothermodynamics model with variational data assimilation for reconstructing heat fluxes on the sea surface.

Izvestiâ Akademii nauk SSSR. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. 2025;61(3):324-339
pages 324-339 views

On eddy heat fluxes and entropy production in the jet flow region and on the earth's surface in the climate model inm ras

Krupchatnikov V., Gochakov A., Antokhina O., Gradov V., Borovko I.

Resumo

This paper discusses some results of the study of eddy heat fluxes in the vicinity of a subtropical jet stream. Many large-scale dynamical phenomena in the Earth's atmosphere are associated with Rossby wave propagation and collapse processes. Here we focus on regions of counter-gradient eddy heat fluxes in the region of the subtropical jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere associated with Rossby wave overturning. In these regions, we observe meridional energy transfer on the northern flank of the jet stream in the equatorial direction from the ERA-5 reanalysis data and simulation data with the INM-CM4-8 climate model of the G.I. Marchuk Institute of Computational Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The entropy production due to horizontal heat transfer becomes negative, since heat is transferred against the temperature gradient, but this is not a violation of the second law of thermodynamics, since the main part of entropy production occurs due to the processes of vertical heat transfer, such as convection, and other irreversible processes. Entropy production is sensitive to land cover, the entropy balance being most related to radiation at the surface. Quantifying the thermodynamic balance of entropy and entropy production is a useful metric for evaluating the interactions of the atmosphere-surface system. Some estimates of entropy production by the surface are presented in this paper. The traditional approach to studying the climate system focuses on the dynamic mechanisms and physical processes responsible for the conversion of energy from one form to another, but an approach based on analyzing the entropy balance of the climate system and especially entropy production is also important.

Izvestiâ Akademii nauk SSSR. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. 2025;61(3):340-351
pages 340-351 views

Contributions of greenhouse gases and solar activity to global surface temperature trends from CMIP6 climate models simulations

Mokhov I., Smirnov D.

Resumo

Quantitative estimates of the contributions of anthropogenic impacts, characterized by changes in the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and solar activity variations to the trends of global surface temperature on secular temporal horizons are obtained from simulations with climate models of the CMIP6 ensemble in comparison with corresponding estimates based on the analysis of long-term observational data since the 19th century using autoregressive models. The results for simulations with climate models characterized by low, medium and high temperature sensitivity to changes in CO2 content in the atmosphere are compared. It is found, in particular, that empirical estimates revealing the determinative contribution of the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the global surface temperature trends on half-century and century-long time intervals are most consistent with the estimates from simulations with the INM-CM4-8 climate model of G.I. Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS with the lowest sensitivity of global surface temperature to doubling the CO2 content in the atmosphere.

Izvestiâ Akademii nauk SSSR. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. 2025;61(3):352-361
pages 352-361 views

Development of marine forecasting systems and observation assimilation algorithms

Korotaev G., Mizyuk A.

Resumo

The article is devoted to the discussion of G.I. Marchuk's ideas, which stimulated research in the field of operational oceanography and forecasting of the state of the marine environment in the last 10–12 years at the institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Roshydromet. The methodology developed at the Marine Hydrophysical Institute and research teams in France in reconstructing the temperature and salinity of seawater based on satellite observations is described. The application of the simple algorithm for assimilation of observations based on relaxation of the solution of the numerical forecast model to three-dimensional thermohaline fields reconstructed from satellite data in the basins of Azov – Black seas, Arctic and the World Ocean is demonstrated. Estimates of the standard deviations of the thermohaline fields of the global ocean, calculated using assimilation of observations with the simple algorithm, are compared with similar estimates of CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service) products based on GLO12 v2 and v4. The reasons for the relatively small discrepancies between the estimates of thermohaline field analyses based on a model with a spatial resolution of 0.25° and the simple algorithm for assimilation of observations and the GLO12 v2 and v4 models with a resolution of 1/12° and a much more complex algorithm for assimilation of observations are discussed.

Izvestiâ Akademii nauk SSSR. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. 2025;61(3):362-376
pages 362-376 views

Numerical study of the riverine water residence time on the shelf of the eastern arctic

Platov G., Golubeva E.

Resumo

The circulation features of the Siberian shelf in the period from 1985 to 2014 are studied using numerical large-scale model of ocean and sea ice circulation and atmospheric reanalysis data. It is shown that in the last two decades the residence time of river tracers in the shelf area has 2-4 times decreased. The most likely reason for this reduction is an increase in the duration of the ice-free period, combined with the prevailing wind effect, favorable for transport of tracers into the deep part of the Arctic Ocean.

Izvestiâ Akademii nauk SSSR. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. 2025;61(3):377-387
pages 377-387 views

Data assimilation algorithms for atmospheric chemistry models

Penenko A., Penenko V., Tsvetova E.

Resumo

The problem of data assimilation for nonstationary models of impurity transfer and transformation is considered as a sequence of related inverse problems of restoring the spatiotemporal structure of state functions, taking into account the measurement data received during modeling. Data assimilation is carried out together with the identification of an additional desired source function, which we call the uncertainty function of the model. The purpose of the work is a brief historical overview and presentation of an up-to-date version of the data assimilation algorithms for atmospheric chemistry models based on sensitivity operators and ensembles of solutions to adjoint equations. A demonstration of the algorithm for a three-dimensional model with a nonlinear measurement operator is given in a modeling scenario for the Baikal region.

Izvestiâ Akademii nauk SSSR. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. 2025;61(3):388-403
pages 388-403 views

Mathematical modeling in the tsunami problem: methodology and practical applications

Gusiakov V., Chubarov L.

Resumo

Mathematical modeling is one of the most powerful and flexible tools for studying complex natural phenomena, in which the setting up of a direct full-scale experiment is, as a rule, impossible. A typical example of a dangerous natural phenomenon characterized by low frequency and severe consequences are tsunami waves that are generated in the oceans and the seas after submarine earthquakes, volcanic explosions, underwater slumping and coastal landslides as well as by high-energy atmospheric disturbances. The paper examines mathematical models used to study the three main stages of tsunami wave evolution: generation by underwater or surface sources, propagation in the deep ocean and on the shelf, and run-up to the coast. Their application to solving two main scientific and applied problems related to the tsunami problem (operational warning and coastal tsunami zoning) is discussed. The work was written for this issue of the journal dedicated to the 100th anniversary of Academician G.I. Marchuk, therefore the review is limited mainly to the results obtained by the authors during their work at the Computing Center of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences in the 1970-80s.

Izvestiâ Akademii nauk SSSR. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. 2025;61(3):404-420
pages 404-420 views

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