Vol 27, No 3 (2024)
DEMOGRAHFY: THEORY AND PRACTICE ISSUES
Methodological guidelines for monitoring of the implementation of demographic and family policies
Abstract
Demographic processes management is of low quality at all levels of government. Inadequate information and analytical support contribute to the weakness of state policy on family and population reproduction. Therefore, it is not possible to ensure extended reproduction of the population or support families with the current system of demographic and family measures. One of the most important directions for improving both forms of the state policy is to provide it with necessary information for development and implementation based on monitoring of the decision of federal and regional authorities. The article discusses the principles and approaches to carrying out such monitoring, which should have two main directions. The first is assessment of the quality of the conceptual documents that define the policy framework, which involves considering the goals, objectives, and principles, checking for the absence of contradictions between them and their focusing on solution of the demographic and family problems within the specified time frame. Implementation of the stated theoretical principles and approaches in practice is the second area. It should allow to determine the financial costs of the policy, the forms of assistance provided to families and their contribution to family budget, as well as to compare regions by the amount and forms of assistance provided to the population. This monitoring will help to improve the quality of state management of territories at the federal and regional levels in implementing the demographic and family policies. It will also simplify the decision-making process for the authorities.
Population. 2024;27(3):4-16
4-16
Assessment of the influence of motivational factors on the formation of emigration moods of young professionals in the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District
Abstract
This article examines the factors of emigration of young specialists from the regions of the Russian Far East to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. The regions of the Russian Far East are steadily experiencing a migration outflow, losing population both in interregional exchange with other regions of the country and as a result of emigration. At the same time, in the structure of migration outflow there is a large proportion of people in working age. Of particular concern is the migration outflow abroad of young specialists — graduates of Far Eastern universities. Emigration of young professionals has a negative impact on the formation of human capital in the Far Eastern territories that are strategically important for the country, and also calls into question the implementation of ambitious infrastructure projects, for which the availability of human resources is very important. In this regard, study of emigration factors of young Far Easterners is relevant. For Far Eastern youth, the dynamically developing Asia-Pacific region is one of the most attractive for migration. Among the main attracting factors, as a rule, young people indicate the possibility of further career growth and improvement of their financial situation, obtaining additional professional competencies, and a good climate. The paper provides a classification of sources and methods for collecting data on international migration, and provides a review of the literature devoted to study of migration factors. The study is based on data from an online survey conducted in September 2023 among young specialists of the Far Eastern Federal District. The data obtained in the course of survey allowed us to evaluate regression logit models, on the basis of which we were able to identify the main factors influencing the emigration sentiments of young specialists in the Russian Far East. The likelihood of emigrating depends on gender, age, presence of children, attitude to religion and level of education of respondents. At the same time, such characteristics as marital status, specialty obtained and family well-being in our survey did not show a significant influence on the decision to emigrate. Also, based on econometric models, a portrait of a potential emigrant was built. The results obtained in the survey can be used in the future to make management decisions in order to reduce the migration outflow of young professionals to foreign countries.
Population. 2024;27(3):17-30
17-30
Russian population in Estonia: main geodemographic trends (2000–2021)
Abstract
The article analyzes the quantitative, spatial, and settlement dynamics of the Russian population of Estonia in the period 2000–2021, examines the shifts in its age structure and gender ratio. The study confirmed preservation in 2000–2010 of two epicenters of the Russian settlement system, including the North-East of Estonia (Ida-Virumaa County) and the metropolitan subregion (Tallinn and Harjumaa County). Russian population’s compact settlement, limited level of natural population decline and near-zero migration balance contributed to a significant reduction in its demographic losses, the rate of which was minimal within all of Russia’s new abroad (10.3% in 2000–2021). The degree of deformation of the age and sex structure of Russians in Estonia was insignificant in comparison with other post-Soviet countries. The combination of these favorable factors works to preserve the scenario of a slow decrease of the Russian community in the country in the coming decades. But the overall demographic stability did not exclude serious problems associated with the active outflow of some Russians (primarily young people and people of working age) to the metropolitan subregion. The consequence of this process was the accelerated decline and rapid aging of the majority of regional groups of Russian population. Currently, in 10 of the 15 counties of Estonia, the average age of Russians exceeds 50 years, which makes a noticeable increase in their natural losses inevitable in the future 10–20 years. Two smallest and oldest regional groups of Russians (Saaremaa and Hiiumaa counties) may almost completely cease to exist by the middle of the century; Russian population of another 6–7 counties of country may decrease by 1.8–2.5 times. Russians in Estonia will be significantly reduced under this geodemographic scenario, and they will be overconcentrated in the metropolitan subregion, which in 2045–2050 may account for about 65–70% of the Russian population of the country.
Population. 2024;27(3):31-47
31-47
Relationship of reproductive behavior of generations in the family
Abstract
The paper presents the study results on the impact of the number of children in parental family on children’s reproductive orientations, based on the data from the Sample Survey of the Reproductive Plans of the Population (Rosstat). The authors have revealed the dependence of individual’s reproductive orientations on the number of children born to respondent’s mother. Those who grew up in a family with a relatively large number of children have, on average, a higher number of children both desired and expected. One can also assume this influence on the next generation: respondents who grew up in families with a large number of children, on average, would advise their children to have more children. The number of children in parental family partly determines the motives for having children (in the study this was considered in relation to the second and third child). With a larger number of children in the parents’ family, the motive for receiving support from children in old age is relatively more significant, and with regard to the birth of a third child, there are also motives for more household help and financial support to families with three children. Reproductive orientations and motives for having children are largely determined by value orientations. For those who grew up in families with a large number of children, it is relatively more significant to have two and three children in their own family.
Population. 2024;27(3):48-61
48-61
Interdependence of population and GRP in the dynamics of development of Russian regions
Abstract
Fiscal federalism in Russia is a necessity, which largely determines the socio-economic development of regions. How subsidies are distributed, what happens to the quality of life and what measures can be taken to increase the efficiency of federal budget spending, what patterns can be identified by considering the basic indicators in the dynamics of development of Russian regions. In the Russian centralized budget system, funds are distributed according to non-transparent criteria. Financial assistance to less developed regions is necessary, but in the absence of transparency it does not have a positive effect. Without support and improvement of financial ties, the stability of the regional economy is lost. Violation of the principles of fiscal federalism leads to weakening of the state, budget instability, a decrease in the effectiveness of economic policy and the quality of life of the population. When forming budget programs, the Russian government pays a great attention to gross regional product (GRP) indicator. Gross regional product and population in most regions are not interrelated due to the presence of various factors influencing this relationship. The subjects of the Russian Federation that have had a significant increase in population and gross regional product are of greatest interest within the framework of this study. The relationship of indicators among the growth leaders is clear, but in most regions it is necessary to take into account their specific characteristics. The need to develop regional connections is one of the conditions for increasing the efficiency. Economic and social equalization of regions is possible by overcoming borders, both transport and communication, which, accordingly, will help to equalize the level and quality of life in Russia.
Population. 2024;27(3):62-72
62-72
The shadow effect of the pandemic: coronavirus has increased mortality from cardiovascular diseases
Abstract
The article analyzes the statistics of mortality and morbidity of the population of the Russian Federation from 1965 to 2022, with a focus on the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the period 2020–2021, there is a sharp increase in mortality from respiratory diseases, correlating with the spread of COVID-19, especially among people with chronic ailments. Nevertheless, diseases of the circulatory system and oncological diseases continued to be the main causes of death, there was an increase in mortality from these diseases after the previous period of reduction in mortality from them. Moreover, during the COVID-19 pandemic, patients with these and other chronic non-communicable diseases were under a “double blow”, since COVID-19 had a more negative impact on people with chronic diseases as compared to healthy people and, at the same time, patients with chronic diseases were deprived of necessary medical care due to the overload of the healthcare system with COVID-19 patients. The suddenness of death from cardiac problems and the lack of previous diagnosis are pointed out, emphasizing the importance of strengthening monitoring of these diseases. The increase in the incidence of chronic non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes mellitus and hypertension, underscores the need for prevention and early diagnosis of such diseases. Four clusters of the RF regions have been identified for the causes of mortality from the main groups of diseases. The authors point out the need to develop special measures in the health system development programs depending on the regional specifics.
Population. 2024;27(3):73-84
73-84
CONDITIONS AND QUALITY OF LIFE OF POULATION
The methodology of ranking federal districts by socio-economic indicators
Abstract
The purpose of the study was to develop and test a methodology for ranking federal districts by socio-economic indicators. The methodology is built on an integral assessment based on the calculation of ratings of selected (chosen) categories and subcategories, which to a certain extent can characterize the studied indicators. For calculations, the authors use socio-economic indicators of Rosstat (data showcases Regions of Russia — Socio-economic indicators). The proposed approach is universal, since it can be based both on statistical data and on the results of empirical studies. It is possible to include additional parameters in the list of categories and subcategories based on the final goals and subtasks of building a rating. There is an option to visualize the obtained rating data on the basis of the results entered into the final rating matrix using markers of the «traffic light» type. The proposed method has been tested and proved its viability. According to the results, Central Federal District is the leader in all categories and subcategories (Rating =1). In second place is Northwestern Federal District (Rating = 2), in third place is the Southern Federal District (Rating = 3). The rest of the federal districts occupy lower positions, but the use of ranking and markers like «traffic light» allows you to visualize the calculated data and highlight critical categories. The developed approach can be useful to specialists, scientists, researchers and administrative workers who deal with the problems of development and assessment of socio-economic indicators of the population.
Population. 2024;27(3):85-97
85-97
Socio-economic factors affecting the quality of labor potential in the regions of Russia
Abstract
The tasks of a large-scale research of the human potential of the population in regions include studying one of its elements — labor potential. To substantiate the directions of its development, the paper considers the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of labor potential and the factors affecting them. These characteristics and their indicators, which are necessary for conducting an interregional analysis, were analyzed in the previous study. The purpose of the presented study is to identify the factors that act on characteristics of labor potential. Study of the qualitative parameters of labor potential is based on the qualification of employees as the ability to work of a certain content and complexity. Therefore, the analysis focuses on socio-economic factors that directly affect the qualifications of employees. These factors include formal education received by employees (at universities and colleges) and additional professional training (at the intra-company level). Other factors are based on the share of the employed in industries related to development of labor potential (manufacturing and service industries with high employment of specialists). These sectors have a significant demand for skilled labor. The factors also include internal costs of maintaining and improving skills: labor costs and cost of additional professional training. To verify validity of the selected factors, the closeness of the relationship between their indicators and indicators of the quality of labor potential was examined by the method of paired correlation. In the vast majority of cases, a significant correlation has been established. Therefore, the proposed factors can be used to substantiate the regulatory effects on the quality of labor potential.
Population. 2024;27(3):98-110
98-110
Human capital and the effectiveness of investments in it
Abstract
The article presents the results of research on the assessment of human capital, its role in the economic development of countries and the effectiveness of public investments in healthcare and education. The first part of the article reveals the essence of modern ideas about human capital; provides indicators and methods for its assessment, describes research methods. In the second part, the main results of the study are presented and their detailed analysis is presented. In particular, the authors emphasize that the assessment of human capital demonstrated its lower values in Russia compared to a number of economically developed countries of the world, mainly due to a higher incidence of infectious diseases, higher infant mortality and lower life expectancy. The conclusion is made about the dominant influence on economic growth in Russia of the cognitive part of human capital in comparison with its physical part. Based on the results of the conducted research, it was concluded that the effectiveness of state investments in human capital in Russia is higher than in a number of economically developed European countries, as well as in the USA and Japan. In differentiation by federal districts of Russia there was revealed a significant asymmetry in the value of the human capital indicator, which may be due, among other things, to different amounts of public investment in health and education per capita, as well as to the traditional for Russia very significant regional differentiation in most socio-economic indicators, including human capital.
Population. 2024;27(3):111-123
111-123
Socio-cultural features of the population of the Arctic region and practices of human capital reproduction: is there a connection?
Abstract
The presented work is devoted to study of the sociocultural characteristics of the population of Arctic Karelia and identification of the connections between these characteristics and practices of human capital reproduction. The information basis was made up of the data from a survey of the population of the region under consideration (n=1042), carried out in the fall of 2023. The tasks of identifying the values of sociocultural characteristics of the population of Arctic Karelia and its territories, as well as identifying the relationships between the values of sociocultural characteristics and the planned measures and practices of respondents in the field of human capital reproduction were solved. Hypotheses were put forward about the connection between the sociocultural characteristics «uncertainty avoidance» and «long-term goal setting» on the one hand, and the characteristics of respondent’s activity on the other hand. Methods of analysis of variance, Kruskal-Wallis H test, Tukey HSD test and Dunnett’s test were used. As a result of the study, the sociocultural characteristics of the population of Arctic Karelia were identified. The assumptions were confirmed that the value of the «uncertainty avoidance» indicator among entrepreneurs is lower than in the group of employees (public sector and private sector), while the value of the «long-term goal setting» indicator, on the contrary, is higher. While the differences in the planned measures for development of human capital between respondents have certain correspondences with the differentiation of sociocultural characteristics, we associate them primarily with characteristics of age groups, as well as gender of respondents. The presented results contribute to conceptual updating of the scientific and information base of the institutional designing of the Russian Arctic and are intended to lay the information and analytical foundations for a general improvement in the quality of governance.
Population. 2024;27(3):124-136
124-136
Pressed for time: How much time do Russians spend caring for their children?
Abstract
The article forms the idea of the structure of daily time budget of families with children, analyses the gender specifics and nature of parental involvement in families with different number of children on weekdays and weekends. The empirical basis for the analysis was microdata from the Sample Observation of the Use of Daily Time Fund by the Population, conducted by the RF Federal State Statistics Service in 2019, that covered about seven thousand respondents who met the research objectives. The main components of the time budgets of family members depending on its size were identified. The number of children in the family has a stronger impact on the time budgets of mothers compared to fathers — up to full (8+ hours) household employment of mothers in large families. The authors note that fathers devote about 40 minutes to caring for their children on weekdays, while mothers spend 3.8 times more. There is recorded an increase in fathers’ involvement in childcare as the family grows. A characteristic jump in the time spent on childcare during the transition from a one-child to a two-child family was revealed, with a subsequent smooth and smaller increase in families with 3 or more children. A possible explanation may be involvement of older children in babysitting and playing with younger children, which increases as the family grows. It is concluded that there is a greater unity in the intra-family activities of all members in large families. The authors point to a great potential for using research on the daily time fund in further studying the lifestyles of families with different number of children.
Population. 2024;27(3):137-152
137-152
ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR OF POPULATION
Russian families’ adaptation to the conditions of limited consumption
Abstract
This work is devoted to assessing the impact of economic sanctions in 2022 on the adaptive behavior of the population. The author examines directions of the adaptation strategies of people and their ideas about the opportunities to improve the financial situation of family. The information base is the representative sociological survey of the National Research University Higher School of Economics «Readiness for Change», conducted in September-October 2022 with a sample of 6,000 respondents. It is shown that adaptation of most respondents to new conditions is expressed in saving strategies and lowering consumption standards. In a such situation, adaptation means getting used to new conditions by reducing consumption standards for the majority of people. The main factors limiting consumer demand in the conditions of economic sanctions were the increased prices and unavailability of certain goods in stores and on Internet sites. According to the savings strategy, people reduce spending on travel, expensive clothing and entertainment. The availability of durable goods with a high import component has decreased: electronics, household appliances, cars, etc. The inability to pay for health-related purchases is becoming critical for the population. It should be noted that people perceive their future economic situation with optimism. For improving their financial situation, they plan to use active forms of adaptation related to increased employment. They declare strategies for finding additional work, obtaining a new specialty or additional education in the current specialty.
Population. 2024;27(3):153-164
153-164
Impact of values on financial behavior of student youth
Abstract
The purpose of the study was to identify the value orientations of contemporary university students and their connection with financial behavior practices. The study is based on data from an author-conducted survey in 2020 «Specifics of Economic Behavior of University Students», which involved 1291 students from 17 universities across Russia. Matthew’s correlation coefficients were used to establish pairwise relationships between significant values, socio-demographic characteristics, and financial behavior practices; stability of these relationships was also analyzed. The research results showed that the most significant values for students are health, a desired job, a friendly, cohesive family, and self-realization. Based on the correlation analysis, there was proposed a grouping of values including moral, communicative, and achievement-related values. The explanatory power of gender was found to be generally low. However, females tend to show a greater inclination towards communicative values and preservation of health. At the same time, males more frequently opt for a range of achievement-related values (popularity, using others for their own benefit). A negative correlation was observed in financial behavior practices between the pursuit of self-realization and preference for speculative financial instruments, as well as a negative correlation between active bank borrowing and communicative value of interacting with interesting people. The study revealed a correlation between value orientations and income-generating activities. For instance, students who earn money from creating video content tend to prioritize popularity and using others for their own purposes. Furthermore, studying consumer behavior practices showed a correlation between preferences for non-cash payments for goods and services and desire for travel, active and interesting lifestyle. The novelty of the research lies in establishing the relationship between values, professional interests, and financial behavior of contemporary students. The obtained results can be useful in managing effective financial behavior among different groups of students.
Population. 2024;27(3):165-179
165-179
Well-being of the older generation in the context of regional social policy
Abstract
The global aging of the population is one of the main demographic trends of our time. Taking into account the irreversibility of the situation as concerns the population reproduction reducing in Russia, public authorities’ efforts to maintain the potential of older people’s resources and create conditions for healthy and active aging of people are logical. These efforts are reflected in various programs and strategic documents. Therefore, it is important to understand how the government’s current policy concerning older citizens meets their needs and expectations. Within the framework of the article, this goal is achieved by comparing the characteristics of the socio-economic situation for older people, identified through a long-term sociological research, with the goals and objectives of the regional project «Older Generation» (using the example of Vologda Oblast). The key challenges affecting the well-being of older people are highlighted: health problems in the form of chronic diseases that may lead to reduction of social interaction; a wide gender gap in life expectancy and prevalence of social isolation; low levels of material well-being, dissatisfaction with different aspects of life, and reduced emotional and psychological well-being. The study shows that the comprehensive program implemented in the region is aimed at improving the quality of life of older people by addressing their health problems, maintaining their social activity, but it takes less account of the issues related to the material well-being and negative social stereotypes about this category of population. In conclusion the authors stress the necessity of adjusting the activities of the regional project «The Older Generation» with the account of the identified shortcomings.
Population. 2024;27(3):180-192
180-192
Labor productivity: features of differentiation of the socio-economic space of the Far Eastern macroregion
Abstract
Sustainable economic growth and spatial development are extremely important for Russia at the present time in the context of external processes of turbulence and instability. Labor productivity is one of the key parameters of growth and development not only at the national level, but also at the subnational level. The need and possibility of raising it by increasing the human capital of Russian regions is obvious. The purpose of this article is to identify the features of differentiation of the socio-economic space of the Far Eastern macroregion (FEFD) based on The regional and sectoral differences in labor productivity, taking into account the parameters of human capital for the purpose of effective public administration in order to achieve national goals in accordance with the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of 05/07. 2024 No. 309 — realization of human potential, advanced training of personnel for priority sectors of the economy, sustainable and dynamic economy. The information base for the study consisted of publications by mainly Russian scientists, statistical data and information and analytical sources. The authors used methodology of spatial analysis, methods — content analysis, statistical, comparative analysis, expert assessment and others. There were identified macroregional features and regional accents on the basis of studying the dynamics of regional labor productivity indicators in the Far Eastern macroregion for the period 2018–2022, including. by groups of economic activities. The source of increased labor productivity as a factor of economic and social development at all spatial levels, including macro- and meso-regional: human capital (the employed with higher education) is emphasized. The macro-regional core of the transformation of human potential into human capital is identified — Primorsky Krai. Application of the results obtained is advisable within the framework of public administration programs and projects concerning scientific and technological development of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, which is a geopolitical and geo-economic priority for Russia.
Population. 2024;27(3):193-205
193-205
SCIENTIFIC LIFE AT ISESP FCTAS RAS
Round table «Social sphere as a generator of human potential: the state, problems and directions of development» at IX Saint Petersburg economic congress (SPEC‑24)
Population. 2024;27(3):206-212
206-212
What worries modern researchers: results of VI International research and practice conference «Social dynamics of population and human potential»
Population. 2024;27(3):213-218
213-218