No 2 (2023)

Guest of the volume

The role of the information factor in modeling the stability of the financial market

Akhmetov R.R.

Abstract

The information function of the financial market plays a key role in the pricing of financial assets. As the importance of information rises, it becomes more expensive and its value begins to exceed the value of the market assets themselves. This gives grounds for including the information factor as a variable not only in the pricing model of financial assets, but also in the financial market as a whole. Information acts as an argument for a non-linear function of return, price and risk level. The stable functioning of the financial market today is of paramount importance for the global financial system and the development of national economies. Is the stock market secondary or does it affect real economic activity? The article touches upon the potential effects of financial markets, which follow from the informational role of market prices. It is shown that taking into account the feedback effect from market prices to the real economy significantly changes our understanding of the pricing process, information content of prices and trading behavior of speculators.

The paper considers linear martingale and nonlinear conditionally Gaussian models. In practice, they are not enough to reflect the asymmetric effects of external influences (exogenous factors). For this reason, it is proposed to use fractal Brownian models along with them. At the same time, one should take into account the degree of information content of the price itself, the reflexivity of price information, i.e. the ability of prices to form market expectations and the psychological factor leading to non-linearity and dynamic chaos.

Intellect. Innovations. Investments. 2023;(2):11-18
pages 11-18 views

Economic Sciences

Transformation of business models in the automotive industry in the context of the development of unmanned technologies

Lapidus L.V., Shorokhova V.N.

Abstract

A typical feature of the digital economy is the transformation of business models in all sectors of the economy under the influence of the development of digital technologies, the diffusion of different classes of artificial intelligence solutions. In the automotive industry, the driver of such transformations are unmanned vehicle control systems and the growing influence of the “mobility as a service” (MaaS) paradigm, which has gained particular popularity in recent years.

The growing MaaS market and the shift of consumer value from the ownership model to the use model form a new mobility, according to which the transport system depends on the implementation of the principles of the sharing economy concept. Sharing begins to play an important role and becomes dominant in the formation of new consumer patterns, which directly affects the business models of both Russian and foreign automakers. The growing maturity of unmanned technologies also has an impact, which is reflected in strategic partnerships and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) transactions, including with startups specializing in unmanned driving technologies.

The purpose of this study is to identify and systematize the conceptual foundations of MaaS and the practice of transforming business processes in the context of the development of unmanned technologies.

The article offers recommendations on the formation of innovative business models of automakers, taking into account the ongoing changes in the technological component of the external environment under the influence of the development of technological solutions of artificial intelligence in the MaaS paradigm. Special attention is paid to the development of proposals for the successful transformation of business models of leading automakers, taking into account the global trends of MaaS and the growing maturity of unmanned technologies.

When conducting the study, the authors relied on scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists, documents with state initiatives on the use of unmanned technologies on public roads in Australia, Great Britain, Germany, China, the Netherlands, the Russian Federation, the USA, and South Korea. The information base was compiled by reports of consulting companies: McKinsey, BCG, KPMG, PwC, statistical data of EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard, NAIC, OICA.

Intellect. Innovations. Investments. 2023;(2):19-33
pages 19-33 views

Assessment of the discount rate and determination of the fair value of the company in strategic investment analysis

Levin V.S.

Abstract

In the conditions of global uncertainty, the conditions of the external and internal environment of the functioning of companies and sectors of the economy are significantly changing. The emergence of new challenges and threats requires the adjustment of existing development strategies, makes relevant methods and models for assessing the fair value of enterprises in the real sector of the economy. The purpose of this study is to investigate and systematize modern approaches to estimating the discount rate when using them in strategic investment analysis based on the concept of company value management. At the first stage of the study, the following models were used for evaluation: weighted average cost of capital, valuation of financial assets, Gordon’s dividend model, return on equity, the multiplier method and the expert method. The advantages and disadvantages of the methods and models used are revealed. The most preferred option is the discount rate equal to 8.55% and calculated according to the financial asset valuation model. At the second stage, the fair value of shares and capital of PJSC Severstal was assessed in the following sequence: calculating the value of shares based on the Gordon dividend model; using free cash flow indicators, weighted average cost of capital and the cash flow discounting method; analyzing the sensitivity of the company’s share price depending on the growth rate of free cash flow and weighted average cost of capital; comparison of the results of the evaluation of the fair value of the shares of the analyzed company obtained by various methods; preparation of conclusions on the fair value of shares and the investment attractiveness of the company. The main results of the study are the author’s methodology for assessing the discount rate and fair value of public companies, including the identification of advantages, disadvantages and further improvement of the tools used for strategic investment analysis. Unlike the works of other authors, the study established the causal conditionality of the discount rate and the results of the fair value assessment of a public joint-stock company, based on the subjective opinion of a specialist making decisions in the field of investment analysis. The practical significance of the work is represented by the methodological approaches developed by the author to assess the discount rate and fair value of companies in the real sector of the economy. Further research of the author is aimed at improving the methods of modern strategic analysis, developing recommendations for the identification, assessment and analysis of investment risks.

Intellect. Innovations. Investments. 2023;(2):34-46
pages 34-46 views

Analysis of the foreign economic potential of Latin American countries

Loseva A.V., Osipov V.S.

Abstract

The article analyzes the foreign economic potential of Latin American countries in the context of its development in the last decade, characterized by significant global crises and geopolitical upheavals. Considering that Latin American countries are active participants in international relations, including with the Russian Federation, and also play a significant role in the international division of labor, we have set the goal of the study – to quantify the changes and the state of the main economic indicators that reflect both foreign economic and domestic processes in the leading countries of the region under consideration, which determine their foreign economic potential. To achieve this goal, traditional methods of scientific knowledge, analysis and synthesis, as well as methods of analytical tools for working with statistical data were used: tabular, graphical, coefficient method, analytical indicators of time series. Based on the results of the study, a number of patterns of recent years have been identified. In particular, the region under consideration experienced the colossal destructive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, however, under these conditions, it generally retained its position in the share of world GDP, which is demonstrated by the analyzed international statistics. According to the results of the analysis, it was noted that the realization of the potential of Latin American countries and the development of their economies is ensured through significant structural changes with priorities for such sectors as the agro-industrial complex and high technology, which largely provides prospects for further development of foreign economic activity and strengthening its position in world markets. The data of international statistics demonstrate the effectiveness of the efforts of the leadership of these states to reduce dependence on the export of the oil and gas industry and develop other types of economic activity. A special place in the economies of countries and their potential as a global supplier is occupied by the modernizing agro-industrial complex, and the tourism services sector plays a significant role. The development of enterprises in the field of information and communication services and digital technologies is assessed by experts as the potential for new positive qualitative changes both for the domestic economy and for international cooperation. However, despite the potential, the economies of Latin America are also subject to systemic problems, which are also clearly reflected in the statistics. The main ones are: corruption, which prevents the formation of a favorable market environment; the complexity of organizing business activities; negative investment flows reflecting capital flight; low standard of living of the population as a whole. As a conclusion, conclusions are drawn about the main systemic problems that prevent the countries of Latin America from realizing their socio-economic potential, as well as about the possibilities of foreign economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and them.

Intellect. Innovations. Investments. 2023;(2):47-62
pages 47-62 views

Methods for quantitative risk assessment based on VaR: comparative analysis

Orlova L.N., Sayakhetdinov A.R.

Abstract

At present, when increasing uncertainty, volatility and turbulence are the main attributes of economic activity, the role of risk management as a tool for ensuring the economic and financial security of economic entities is increasing. Risk management provides a risk forecast in a simple and understandable form, suggests directions and methods for mitigation. For most business entities, quantitative risk assessment is the most acceptable and understandable, and therefore, in recent decades, the Value at Risk (VaR) methodology for assessing asset risk exposure has been used, aimed at assessing and minimizing possible asset value losses. The purpose of the study is to summarize theoretical approaches and best practices for applying the Value at Risk methodology to substantiate and assess financial risks. The object of the study is scientific approaches to the definition of VaR as a measure of risk; the subject of the study is economic relations and patterns that arise in the process of forecasting and minimizing the financial risks of economic entities. The methods of logical analysis, generalization, structuring, economic and mathematical methods were chosen as the main research methods. The empirical basis of the study was data from open information resources, analytical agencies, and statistical materials. The information base of the study is open sources, accumulating data on the quotation of shares of economic entities. The novelty of the study lies in the generalization of the possibilities of applying the VaR methodology for assessing the risks of assets of various business entities, determining the ways of interpreting this indicator depending on the approaches used to determine it. As conclusions and recommendations, the authors present directions for the practical application of the VaR methodology in the presence of various amounts of information and input data.

Intellect. Innovations. Investments. 2023;(2):63-74
pages 63-74 views

Forming a strategic planning toolkit to manage the development of Russian agglomerations

Sobolev S.A.

Abstract

The development of the methodological apparatus of strategic planning of meso-economic systems has been a burning issue of the scientific community for the past two decades. However, currently, domestic practice pays insufficient attention to the regulation of agglomeration processes using strategic planning mechanisms. In particular, there is no unified methodological approach to the development of strategic plans for urban agglomerations at the federal, regional and municipal levels of public administration.

It should be noted that some Russian regions are actively implementing the institution of strategic planning for urban agglomerations. However, these practices are adapted approaches from corporate management, which cannot be fully used due to the difference between the goals of corporate and public management. Strategic planning of agglomerations is a basic form of spatial planning, which aims to determine the purpose of territories based on a set of socio-economic, environmental, cultural-historical, political-management and other factors. The implementation of this process is aimed at sustainable development of territories, increasing the infrastructure provision of spatial development, ensuring that the interests of citizens and their associations are taken into account.

The aim of the article is to work out the model of strategic planning for managing the development of urban agglomerations. The problems and prospects of strategic planning and management in Russian agglomerations are revealed, the regional practices of regulating agglomeration processes are considered. The analysis of existing strategic planning in Russian agglomerations has been carried out.

Scientific novelty of the research lies in the definition of new approaches to the formation of strategic planning of urban agglomerations at the regional level. The use of strategic management tools at each stage of strategic planning of agglomeration processes has been substantiated. The author’s model of strategic planning of urban agglomerations is developed.

The practical significance of the article lies in the possibility of using the developed model of strategic planning for the formation of development strategies and program-target documents of urban agglomerations.

The following methods are used for the study: comparative analysis, content analysis, graphical method and system approach, methods of observation and modeling, etc.

Intellect. Innovations. Investments. 2023;(2):75-87
pages 75-87 views

Audit as a tool for reducing compliance risks of digital investment ecosystem participants

Yakimova V.A.

Abstract

The article is devoted to the problem of developing mechanisms to increase the sustainability of the digital investment ecosystem, in which the main participants are investors, borrowers or other persons attracting investments, the Bank of Russia as a regulator, a professional organization. The purpose of this study is to identify ways to trust the system of digital investment platforms by developing financial compliance methods for ecosystem participants. In the course of the study, methods of statistical analysis, generalization and grouping of compliance risk assessment, ecosystem modeling with the allocation of functions and actions of its participants were used. The ecosystem approach was used as a basic approach, which allows revealing interactions and assessing the impact of the risks of one participant on the stability of the ecosystem as a whole.

The study found that participants are exposed to high compliance risks that can lead to a system default and cause systemic risks of a chain of bankruptcies due to defaults, changes in rules and restrictions. The level of compliance risk for crowdfunding participants was 27%, and the analysis of operators’ declarations identifies 23 types of risks that an investor takes on and which carry the threat of loss of invested capital. High risks and their diversification led to the conclusion that it is necessary to build investment compliance control procedures into the investment ecosystem, which can be carried out by audit organizations as assurance tasks. The results of the study are of practical importance for the development of the methodological apparatus of compliance in the process of carrying out activities by audit organizations and the development of a system for regulating the activities of investment ecosystems by the Bank of Russia.

Intellect. Innovations. Investments. 2023;(2):88-98
pages 88-98 views

Transport

Influence of traffic flow parameters and road characteristics on road safety

Baklanova K.V.

Abstract

Despite the positive effect of the implementation of existing federal targeted programs and national projects in the field of road safety (RTS), the death rate on roads remains quite high. The article considers the current state of accidents, the dynamics of the development of the road network and the level of motorization over the past 10 years. The factors that determine the current state of accidents are identified. Based on the accident rate on the territory of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, it was revealed that the most serious road traffic accidents (RTA) occur on roads outside the city limits, a large percentage of accidents involving vehicles of categories M2, M3 and N. Based on the analysis of studies in the field of road safety assessment and statistical data, the purpose of the study is defined - to identify the impact of traffic flow parameters and road characteristics on road safety.

The paper uses the methods of mathematical statistics, the content of which was determined in the course of a study of 20 sites on the FAD in the Krasnoyarsk Territory. For analysis, sections were selected that differ in the level of accidents, traffic flow characteristics and geometric parameters.

As a result of a scientific study, it is mathematically confirmed that traffic safety is influenced by the composition of the traffic flow and the variational range of speeds between the overtaken and overtaking vehicles. The dependence of the variational range of speeds between the overtaken and overtaking vehicles on the composition of the traffic flow, the dependence of the partial accident rate coefficient K11 on the variational range of speeds between the overtaken and overtaking vehicles are determined. A regression model has been obtained for the dependence of the average annual number of accidents on the width of the shoulder, the radius of the curve in plan, visibility, the distance from the edge of the carriageway to a cliff with a depth of more than 5 m, the friction coefficient, the composition of the traffic flow, the variation range of speeds between the overtaken and overtaking vehicles.

The scientific novelty of the study is the dependence of the average annual number of accidents on the traffic flow parameters and road characteristics.

The practical significance of the study lies in the increase in traffic safety due to the use of the final accident rate method in its assessment, which takes into account the composition of the traffic flow and the variational range of speeds between the overtaken and overtaken vehicles.

Further research is aimed at identifying yet unaccounted for factors influencing RTS.

Intellect. Innovations. Investments. 2023;(2):99-110
pages 99-110 views

Influence of seasonal conditions on the failure rate parameter of elements of the KAMAZ-43118 engine power supply system

Guselnikov A.S., Zakharov N.S.

Abstract

The reliability of the engine largely depends on the technical condition of the fuel equipment. It is known that the efficiency of cars depends on the operating conditions that change during the seasons of the year.

The aim of the study is to establish the influence of seasonal operating conditions on the parameter of the failure rate of elements of the power supply system of KAMAZ-43118 car engines. The article presents a fragment of the research results. To achieve this goal, the theoretical part considers the factors affecting the reliability of the system under study. From the analysis of sources, it was found that with the change of the season of the year, road and transport conditions, natural and climatic factors significantly affect the food system. In this regard, the hypothesis of the study is put forward: natural and climatic factors significantly affect the reliability of the power supply system of KAMAZ-43118 car engines.

At the first stage of experimental studies, statistical data on the operating time for failure of the power supply system of KAMAZ-43118 cars were processed, the elements of the system with the greatest number of failures were identified. At the second stage, the influence of air temperature on the parameter of the failure flow of the elements of the power supply system of KAMAZ-43118 car engines was established. With the help of correlation analysis, the significance of seasonal changes in natural and climatic factors is proved. At the third stage, a methodology for using the obtained data to adjust the volume of spare parts and materials in the warehouse is proposed. The scientific novelty of the research is to establish the regularities of the influence of air temperature on the parameter of the failure flow of fuel equipment elements of KAMAZ-43118 vehicles. The practical significance lies in the possibility of using the results of the study in the development of a methodology for optimizing the volume of spare parts and materials in the warehouse. Further research will be aimed at improving the reliability of the power supply system taking into account seasonal operating conditions by adjusting the frequency of maintenance.

Intellect. Innovations. Investments. 2023;(2):111-120
pages 111-120 views

Influence of running time and age on the flow of vehicle failures

Zakharov N.S., Tenkovskaya S.A.

Abstract

The service life of cars is a key indicator for planning the replacement of outdated equipment with a new one. It is also taken into account during the technical re-equipment of the industry, the development of the material and technical base and has a direct impact on the final results of the enterprise. It is shown that limiting the maximum age and service life of cars is one of the ways to increase their reliability, safety and efficiency. The purpose of the article is to develop a methodology for determining the rational service life of cars, providing a given level of reliability of transport and technological services. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the establishment of patterns and the development of mathematical models of the influence of age and operating time on the parameter of the failure rate of cars. The methodological basis of the work was the systematization of research works carried out earlier on this topic, regulatory documents, scientific and technical literature, as well as methods of mathematical statistics, elements of a systematic approach, methods of economic analysis and expert assessments. Methods of determining rational service life of cars are considered. It is established that each of the known methods has a limited scope of use. So, the schedule built for the implementation of the technical and economic method does not always have a minimum. It is proposed to set the maximum operating time according to the admissible probability of failure. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account not only the mileage since the entry into operation, as it is accepted in most known methods, but also car operation intensity. It is shown that in the general case, there is no statistically significant linear correlation between car age and mileage since the entry into operation. One-factor and two-factor models of the regularities of the influence of these indicators on car failure intensity were developed. On the basis of statistical data on failures of cars of different ages and at different mileages since the entry into operation, the adequacy of the proposed models was checked and the numerical values of their parameters were established. Based on the obtained dependencies, a method for determining the age limit of cars, taking into account their operation intensity, was developed. The effect of it is formed due to a more accurate determination of the service life of cars, which affects the reduction of the number of failures, losses from downtime in current repairs and downtime of the main production of the enterprises under discussion. Further research in this area should be directed to the development of a methodology for adjusting the service life of cars, taking into account their operating conditions.

Intellect. Innovations. Investments. 2023;(2):121-129
pages 121-129 views

Estimation of the effectiveness of spiral markings at ring road intersections

Rassokha V.I., Nikitin N.A.

Abstract

The results of a number of foreign studies recommend the application of spiral markings to ensure a higher level of safety at roundabouts of medium and large diameter highways. In a number of cities of the Russian Federation, these recommendations were implemented with the introduction of new traffic management schemes using spiral marking of traffic lanes. However, there is no objective data confirming the effectiveness of these measures in Russia. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of spiral markings according to two criteria – the number of road accidents and traffic violations at roundabouts before and after the reorganization of traffic. The information was obtained from the traffic police and from video surveillance of individual sections of roundabouts. As a result of the study: 1) the hypothesis of a decrease in the number of accidents and the assertion that new traffic management schemes (spiral markings) by themselves provide greater traffic safety at roundabouts are refuted; 2) it is revealed that drivers tend to violate the requirements of spiral markings, which increases the likelihood of accidents; 3) it is concluded that new traffic management schemes can have a positive impact on road safety only when engineering measures are implemented to physically separate traffic flows on the ring roadway and reduce the speed of vehicles at the entrances and exits of roundabouts. The results of the work revealed promising areas for further research: to study the relationship between the trajectory of vehicles, their location from the point of view of certain intersection sites, spiral markings, characteristics of traffic flow (speed, density, congestion, flow composition), as well as weather conditions. The identification of such links will allow us to evaluate the effectiveness of spiral marking and draw conclusions about the expediency of its further use at roundabouts in the territory of the Russian Federation.

Intellect. Innovations. Investments. 2023;(2):130-141
pages 130-141 views

Philosophical Sciences

The specificity of modern protest movements: from socio-cultural destruction to the devaluation of morality (on the example of BLM protests)

Petev N.I.

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the internal content of the rhetoric and the main features of the construction of protest movements. For this study, the «Black Lives Matter» movement was used as a subject, as a phenomenon in which the desired components are most clearly traced. Due to the correlation of the spontaneous and irrational aspects and the speculative-radical, pragmatic component, the studied specifics and content are successfully identified. This study uses a combination of methods (dialectical, analytical, content analysis, etc.), as well as approaches (ethical, social, political, etc.). As a result, the author comes to the following conclusions and results: 1. Protests of this kind are characterized by targeted damage to cultural and historical heritage in order to initiate its devaluation. 2. One of the characteristics is «reverse racism», which is directed not only against a certain category of people, but mostly by teleological primacy has the acquisition of special advantages and quotas. 3. In the rhetoric of such organizations, there is an immanent speculative tendency to deny the rights of the individual, to «average» the individual before being elevated to the masses, as well as the formation of a new stereotyping. 4. The repressive cult of violence and cruelty is draped with the ideas of «noble struggle». 5. Special conscious radicalism (both ideological and expressed in specific intentional acts), which excludes the possibility of dialogue. 6. The eradication of history and tradition presupposes the formation of a new socio-political system, and morality and religion are tools for achieving such goals. 7. Escalation within the framework of moral consciousness, attitudes, behavior and value system of the «tolerance» fetish, which becomes a total system for controlling / suppressing freedom (opinions, attitudes, etc.), creating an alibi of responsibility and conditions for the degeneration of individuality.

Intellect. Innovations. Investments. 2023;(2):142-155
pages 142-155 views

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