DEMIS. Demographic Research

On January 20, 2025, Galina Ivanovna Osadchaya passed away. She was Doctor of Sociological Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher at the Institute for Demographic Research FCTAS RAS, Head of the Department for the Study of Socio-Demographic Processes in the EAEU, Chairperson of the Scientific Council “Socio-Political and Demographic Problems of the Formation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)” at the Department of Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, member of the Advisory Council of the Eurasian Information and Analytical Consortium, Chairperson of the Sociology Section of the Central House of Scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences, member of the Scientific Council “Demographic and Migration Problems of Russia” at the Department of Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, member of the Presidium of the Federal Educational and Methodological Association for the Large Group of Specialties and Directions “Sociology and Social Work”, Honorary Worker of Higher Professional Education of the Russian Federation, Honorary Worker of the Ministry of Labor of Russia, laureate of the Russian Government Prize in the Field of Education.

The aim of the article is to identify the significance of demographic data in the context of ensuring national security. The analysis is based on the historical experience of Japanese intelligence activities in Russia in the early 20th century. The main aspects of the work of Japanese intelligence services are revealed based on archival and expert materials from the period under study, including those that have become available recently. Research shows that in the late 19th – early 20th centuries, a significant part of the activities of the Second (Intelligence) Directorate of the Japanese General Staff was focused on collecting demographic information in the following categories. 1. Military statistics (composition, number, locations of military units; wartime losses; mobilization resources). Obtaining reliable information in this category contributed to the correct assessment of the military situation by the Japanese authorities and the early determination of Russian military-political plans. 2. Ethnic and social composition of the population. The collection and subsequent analysis of this information allowed Japanese intelligence to identify recruitment vulnerabilities in individuals of intelligence interest, successfully persuade them to cooperate, or covertly obtain intelligence information from them.

The article is devoted to the problems of the history of the resettlement of the Russian-speaking population of North-Eastern China to the regions of Eastern Siberia for the development of virgin and fallow lands. In 1954–1955, the leadership of the USSR organized the repatriation of the Russian-speaking population from the People's Republic of China to their historical homeland. The repatriation was formalized in the form of resettlement for the development of virgin and fallow lands, Russian re-emigrants arrived in the regions of Russia and Kazakhstan as virgin land settlers. The easternmost regions of the Soviet Union where the re-emigrants were settled were the Irkutsk Region and the Krasnoyarsk Territory. The study was conducted based on office documents stored in the regional archives of Eastern Siberia, as well as personal sources and the recollections of the re-emigrants themselves. The mass and voluntary relocation of Russians from the PRC to the USSR began after the adoption of the resolution of the CPSU Central Committee in 1954 "On the further increase in grain production in the country and on the development of virgin and fallow lands", but this issue was resolved at the level of Soviet-Chinese relations back in 1953. The settlers from the PRC made up only a few percent of the total number of virgin land settlers, and a significant part of them already in 1954–1955 left agricultural enterprises, practically not taking part in the development of virgin and fallow lands. The problems of preparing the repatriation of the Russian-speaking population to the USSR, as well as their actual participation in the development of virgin and fallow lands, indicate that resettlement to develop virgin lands was a form of repatriation, with a concomitant solution to the problems of developing virgin and fallow lands. The resettlement of re-emigrants from China became an important factor in the development of the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Irkutsk Region, not only in terms of developing virgin and fallow lands in these regions. Resettlement to develop virgin lands turned out to be the optimal repatriation of Russians from China to their historical homeland in form and content.

Using the example of one of the Russian regions, the Republic of Bashkortostan, the article examines the current socio-demographic problem of modern society – the aging of the population. The authors, based on official statistics, analyze a number of socio-demographic characteristics of the elderly population: number, age-sex, marital structure; level of childbearing, as well as mortality and migration rates: life expectancy of the population; the structure of mortality by cause, age-related mortality rates, the age-sex structure of migrants, the level of participation of the elderly population in different areas of migration. A feature of the socio-demographic structure of the elderly population is the predominance of women, unmarried people, and a significant proportion of single households, which tends to grow. The coronavirus pandemic has had a significant impact on the mortality rate of the elderly population, to which the elderly are the most vulnerable. Migration of the elderly population is characterized by a migration increase in people aged 60-64 years. Most of them are those who return to their historical homeland from other Russian regions after completing their work. The growing number of the elderly population, the high level of chronic diseases in this age group, and an increase in the proportion of elderly people living alone necessitate the development of an effective gerontological service in the Republic of Bashkortostan.

The article examines the spatial distribution of fertility at the municipal level in those regions of Russia that showed one of the best fertility dynamics in Russia during its nationwide rise in 2000-2015. (Vologda, Kurgan, Sverdlovsk, Tyumen, Sakhalin regions). The aim of the work is to identify spatial patterns of birth rate distribution at the intraregional, municipal level. The indicators of the Database of municipalities of Rosstat were used for the study. Special fertility rates for municipalities were calculated and maps were built. It turned out that the maximum birth rate was observed in predominantly rural municipal areas remote from large cities and in urban districts with little urbanization. They also proved to be the most stable on the general downward trend, maintaining relatively high birth rates. The minimum birth rate was observed in the largest, large, sometimes medium-sized cities and in the territories closest to them, as well as during the period of decline – in areas with a minimum share of the rural population and in areas where there was a reduction (optimization) of district hospitals. Comprehensive support for rural areas through the development of labor-intensive agricultural production, rural infrastructure, and equalization of intra- and inter-regional differences in income and social security, among other measures, can support the birth rate in the regions. In cities, it is necessary to launch programs for the mass construction of individual residential buildings instead of predominantly multi-store buildings, which will facilitate the establishment of more children in families. The expansion of the income base of regional economies leads to an increase in the birth rate in them, to the possibility of introducing special measures to stimulate the birth rate, as in the Sakhalin region. On the contrary, a decrease in the gross regional product in real terms leads to a decrease in the birth rate even if there are measures to support it. It is necessary to reduce the concentration of economic entities and the population in metropolitan agglomerations, as prescribed in the recommendations of the Federation Council and in the National Security Strategy.

The subject of this study is the demographic situation in China. The objectives of the study include determining long-term trends in its change, their causes and consequences for the economic development of the PRC. The theoretical basis of the study is modern concepts of demographic development within the framework of the macroeconomic approach, set out in the works of Chinese and foreign scholars. The study is based on an extensive database of statistical data on the demographic and economic development of the PRC for the period since 1950, obtained from open sources of the National Bureau of Statistics, the UN and the World Bank. Standard methods of time series analysis are applied to the data in order to identify sustainable trends. The main part of the article considers long-term trends in fertility, mortality, changes in the size, sex and age structure of the population, migration and urbanization, as well as their effects on the economic development of China. In conclusion, practical recommendations are provided regarding possible measures of demographic and socio-economic policy that will help to overcome the negative consequences and make a painless transition to the paradigm of sustainable development. The study may be of interest to a wide range of specialists in the field of demography, population migration, macroeconomics, and China studies.

One of the areas of work of the new national project “Family” is the development of a set of measures aimed at helping young parents combine family life with study or work, in connection with which the relevance of the study of the student family as one of the key areas of the project increases. The purpose of this article is to analyze the accumulated theoretical and empirical material on the topic of student families. The article is based on the results of the All-Russian sociological study “Student Family of Russia”, conducted in 2022. The features of the marital and family attitudes of the surveyed youth, attitudes towards family as a value, ideas about children were studied. The results of interviews with members of student families were separately analyzed, the genesis of their relationships, the nature of problems and the experience of receiving state and other support were studied. It was revealed that family well-being remains a significant goal for the respondents, while family happiness for most of them consists in reciprocity of feelings, mutual involvement in family life. The problems faced by student families include not only material and economic difficulties, but also psychological difficulties, problems with employment and much more. Families with children mostly apply for state support, but few are willing to do so due to the rejection of bureaucratic procedures. The results obtained can be used as a basis for developing areas of work with student families within the framework of the implementation of the new national project “Family”, and for developing measures to increase the importance of the role of children in young people’s ideas about family.

The article is devoted to the analysis of migration potential of Russia abroad, considering its relevance in the context of global changes and demographic crisis in the country. The study is based on population census data, expert estimates, and own calculations. The research methodology contains a study of the theoretical foundations of the topic and an analysis of the estimates of migration potential presented in the scientific literature, including an assessment of their actuality and applicability. The historical dynamics of the spread of the Russian language, its role in the formation of Russian-speaking communities abroad, and the possibilities of using migration potential to strengthen international relations and solve demographic problems in Russia are explored. Based on the results of the work, it is concluded that the existing studies on migration potential are significantly outdated and require updating. It is noted that the factors of migration potential are the population number and migration attitudes that influence the decision to leave the country of residence. Previously, to study the latter aspects, it was necessary to conduct sociological surveys, which significantly limited the availability and comparability of the obtained results. Currently, it is possible to use alternative sources of information, such as electronic social networks, search engines, etc. The conclusion of the paper highlights the need to update data on migration potential using alternative data. The scientific contribution of the article is to interpret the importance of creating a comprehensive assessment of migration potential, which can guide government agencies to effectively use resources to work with the Russian-speaking population outside the country. The results of the study can be applied in the field of migration policy.

The article is devoted to the consideration of the key provisions and ideas of the collective monograph "Migration from Russia to Kyrgyzstan: demographic and sociological aspects", the publication of which was very timely, since migration is a phenomenon that is becoming increasingly relevant on a global scale every year. In the context of globalization and political changes, migration policy remains a subject of active discussion, both in the academic community and in the media. In turn, these debates often cover a wide range of issues - from the rights of migrants to the economic consequences of migration. The collective monograph under review uses a large array of express surveys and interviews with labor migrants in 2022-2023. These studies were carried out in the course of the scientific project "Return Migration and Emigration from Russia to Kyrgyzstan" (headed by G. I. Osadchaya). The monograph provides a number of important introductory provisions that set, first of all, the general direction of the work itself. The authors of the monograph analyze theories of return migration and theories of emigration. They pay special attention to the role of social capital, interaction with the host population and the real everyday life that Russian emigrants find themselves in in Kyrgyzstan. In particular, they found that the overwhelming majority of informants, while in the Kyrgyz Republic, maintain stable contacts with their friends and relatives in Russia. They use all kinds of information sources, such as Telegram channels, social networks, YouTube, Twitter or foreign media. According to the results of sociological research, the team of authors claims that the emigration of Russians to Kyrgyzstan is characterized by speed, spontaneity and ease of entry. This is due to the fact that the Kyrgyz Republic does not require visas for citizens of the Russian Federation due to close cultural and economic ties between the two countries, as well as due to the presence of acquaintances or friends and people's love for the city of Bishkek. Among the emigrants, men aged 18 to 42 prevail, which is interpreted as a desire to avoid participation in the military conflict with Ukraine. It was further established that return migration from Russia to Kyrgyzstan is voluntary and spontaneous. From the Russian Federation, labor migrants primarily expect institutional support, which is expressed mainly in the preparation of registration documents, provision of social insurance, creation of favorable conditions for their full adaptation and self-disclosure as an individual. The publication of the scientific monograph under consideration provides a lot of various interesting judgments for further reflection and continuation of work in this vein. It is worth adding that the target audience of such a work is primarily students, graduate students, postgraduates, representatives of science and specialists studying the theory and sociology of migration. In other words, the reviewed monograph will be useful for specialists in the fields of sociology, economics and political science, as well as for anyone interested in issues of emigration and migration processes.