Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management

The paper presents an original solution to an urgent scientific issue — the development of an innovative approach to managing the selection and implementation of innovative engineering technology projects (IETP) in the oil-producing sector, aimed at justifying the rationality of investment initiatives and increasing the likelihood of their positive outcome. A unique interpretation of the concept of “oil innovative project of engineering technologies” was introduced, taking into account the key role of engineering technologies in modernizing the activities of oil producing companies to overcome current challenges of the industry. The pros and cons of traditional Stage-Gate and TRL methodologies in IETP implementation are analyzed. A two-stage IETP assessment system was proposed, including primary and deep expertise on key parameters of organizational, production, market, and technological maturity of the project. Integrated assessment of IETP is based on the calculation of an integral indicator of project readiness.

The published article proposes a generalization of mathematical models of consumer innovation diffusion for the case of variable imitation coefficients and nonlinear variants of total market saturation. A differential equation of consumer innovation diffusion is constructed, taking into account variations in the imitation coefficient and nonlinearity of the total market saturation process. Possible scenarios for the development of the innovation diffusion process are considered, corresponding to various combinations of variants of changes in variable imitation coefficients with variants of nonlinear methods of total market saturation. Numerical analysis of the developed model showed good agreement with known statistical data on the growth in the number of users of the global Internet in Russia.

This article is devoted to the consideration of current issues of efficiency and sustainability of the closed-loop economy.

The paper considers the classical linear model of resource use: production – consumption– disposal, in which synthetic multicomponent substances that are not subject to natural decay for many decades predominate.

An innovative approach is analyzed, contrasting the traditional linear model, the main goal of which is to prolong the life cycle of goods and materials. The paper reveals the key aspects that must be observed to form a stable and sustainable economic model based on a closed cycle of resources.

It is shown that in the transition from a linear to a cyclical production model, it is necessary not only to use, but also to restore natural capital, which implies the integration of waste into natural cycles with minimal negative impact on surrounding ecosystems.

The paper analyzes the main criteria and significant problems of the efficiency of a modern closed-loop economy, and presents the market share of cyclical business models by sector. The peculiarity of the Russian closed-loop model is revealed, which consists in prioritizing economic interests over environmental aspects. Russia’s strategic goals and measures are presented, including the creation of a specialized infrastructure for the collection, sorting, transportation and recycling of waste.

The paper presents a forecast for the extraction of material resources taking into account current trends.

Based on the results of the study, conclusions and recommendations are made.

The proposed article discusses methods of quantitative risk assessment taking into account the specifics of the process of formation and implementation of innovation and investment projects at oil production enterprises. Close attention is paid to the analysis and improvement of the model for evaluating innovation and investment projects in the context of economic efficiency and taking into account project risks in the field of oil production. The essential points of the stages of the methodology for assessing innovation and investment projects of oil production enterprises, taking into account key risk factors affecting the final efficiency of the project, are disclosed.

The article analyzes various views and approaches to the formation of the concept of economic security of the territory and highlights the main provisions. The priority of national ideas and strategies, formed as a response to external and internal threats, put forward the requirements for the regional development strategy of maximum and effective participation of regions in achieving both their own economic security and national security. The economic security of the region should be considered as a system consisting of management facilities, each of which is characterized by a set of evaluation indicators indicating a certain level of security. This approach requires differentiation of the indicators approved in the strategy of economic security of Russia for the period up to 2030. The article presents an assessment of economic security at the nano-, micro-, meso- and mega levels using the index method and the comparison method. The interpretation of the calculated aggregated indicators of economic security of the Russian economy was carried out taking into account the level of inflation.

Under the influence of international sanctions, access to foreign technologies and equipment has significantly narrowed, forcing some Russian industries to accelerate modernization. However, the current level of government support is not so high today: banks are cautious about lending for long-term projects in the real sector, and high interest rates hinder the implementation of initiatives in medium and low-profit segments of industry.

The state’s policy focuses on financing educational institutions (including federal universities and research centers) as well as creating regional engineering complexes and special economic zones. Despite these measures, the modernization process is still slow. It becomes increasingly clear that overcoming the challenges of innovative development with only the efforts of individual players or even entire sectors of the economy is impossible. To move forward successfully, strong mechanisms for cooperation among all stakeholders — from government to business and science — are necessary. An example of such a model can be found in technological platforms, which have already proven their effectiveness in advanced industrial nations. Coordinating the actions of key elements of development (government agencies, scientific community, and industry) within national strategies is a top priority for Russia’s economy on its path toward sustainable innovation-driven growth.

According to Rosstat data, the share of high-tech exports in total exports amounts to only about 10%, indicating the need for a serious reassessment of approaches to innovation development. Additional challenges include insufficient levels of digitalization in production processes and a shortage of skilled personnel in high-tech fields. Overcoming these difficulties will require significant investments in training specialists and developing digital solutions, which should become an integral part of state policy in the coming years.

The multifaceted nature of modernization and unresolved financial issues demand comprehensive analysis and the search for new approaches to managing the processes of industrial innovation development, aligning perfectly with the goals of this study.

This article calculates key performance indicators of the company Volgotrans LLC’s dynamic activity. Trends are identified, and models for estimating forecast values are described. A comparative analysis of forecasting results using Holt’s and Brown’s adaptive models is conducted. Estimates of forecast levels for cargo turnover and revenue are obtained. The application of mathematical tools for dynamic analysis allows for solving forecasting problems in the river and sea freight industry. Calculated values of growth rates, absolute increments (both chain and base), and average values of indicators ensure high-quality use of dynamic forecasting models. The use of the moving average method creates conditions for identifying trends. A comparative analysis of the results using trend models and the adaptive forecasting methodology of Holt and Brown improves the accuracy of the forecast for the indicators under study. Dynamic analysis of indicators contributes to the development of the company’s development strategy, the analysis of advantageous cooperation options, and the development of higher-quality routes.

At the present stage, the transformation processes of the economy, taking into account the development of modern digital technologies, determine the further directions of modern science in interaction with the real industrial sector. In the context of the formation of a favorable digital environment for the development of innovations, a management mechanism is required that ensures the growth of economic efficiency, the implementation of innovation security and increased technological sovereignty in the long term, based on digital platforms.

The paper examines digital platforms built on the coordination of digitalized information data, business processes and industrial infrastructure, representing the functionality of tasks, processes and strategies of digital transformation of industrial enterprises.

The study presents the idea of localizing interconnected activities based on the zones of concentration of scientific schools and the level of innovative achievements of individual territories and regions. The work notes that in modern geopolitical conditions, in the context of economic sanctions and a ban on the use of Russian innovative technologies, the transition to local economic processes seems to be one of the main approaches to national security, innovative development and strengthening the technological sovereignty of the state.

Based on the use of the ecosystem approach, it is possible to create technological and information models and management of industrial business processes.

The aim of the study is to form and develop a model of digital transformation of innovative ecosystems in the industrial sector of the region.